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The petty officer advancement list is out, and more than 18,000 sailors have something to crow about: They will be move up to become petty officers first, second or third class.
Even as sailors celebrate, there is sobering news: The Navy has active-duty quotas to advance fewer than 15,000 to E-4, E-5 and E-6.
Scroll down for lists, quotas
Navy-wide, there is a 16.42 percent chance to advance, with 88,715 sailors passing their tests and 14,570 quotas available to move up. That is down from 19.86 percent last fall and a 24.08 percent chance just a year ago.
Part of the problem is more competition, with 1,758 more sailors passing their tests than the 86,957 who passed in September, and 2,740 more than a year ago, when 85,975 became eligible to advance by passing advancement exams.
But the real killer is fewer quotas, down 2,808 from the 17,378 available slots to move up last fall. That's also 6,087 fewer than last year's spring cycle, when 20,657 got a new chevron.
The falloff was worst at the E-4 level, where opportunity is the lowest since at least 1997. The 5,760 available quotas are 1,602 fewer than the 7,362 made available last fall. Quotas for third class are also down 4,474 from the spring 2009 cycle's 10,234 quotas.
At 24.40 percent opportunity, it's lowest chance to make E-4 in nearly two decades. Opportunity has dropped nearly 10 percentage points each year since spring 2008, when it was 46.58 percent.
At the E-5 level, opportunity is also down for the third cycle in a row. The overall opportunity to make second class dipped to 15.52 percent, down from the 18.97 percent last fall and 22.6 percent just a year ago.
It's the lowest chance at making E-5 since fall 1997, when opportunity was 15.06 percent, but still a bit above the 12.57 percent in the fall of 1996, when the Navy was drawing down.
Here, too, competition is rising. Since the spring 2009 cycle, the numbers of test-passers has increased by 1,011 while quotas dropped by 2,109, causing the slide in opportunity.
If there's a bright spot, it's at E-6, where opportunity dipped a fraction of a percentage point to 11.08, down from 11.09 last fall. That's still higher than last spring's 10.75 percent.
Although the quotas dropped from last fall by 130, to 3,233, it's still higher than the 2,787 quotas available last spring. But the drop in quotas was offset by fewer eligible sailors 1,31l fewer test passers than last fall.
Active petty officer advancements
http://www.navytimes.com/projects/careers/navy/e4toe6quotas/2010/">Active advancement quotas
Full-time support petty officer advancements
The news is somber in the full-time support ranks, though they outpaced the regular Navy's opportunity at E-4 and E-5.
Overall, 444 FTS sailors will advance out of 2,648 test passers for an overall opportunity of 16.77 percent. That's 69 fewer quotas than last fall, when opportunity was 19.01 percent with 513 advancing out of 2,689 test passers.
At E-4, opportunity dropped to 35.81 percent with 140 quotas, 12 fewer than the 152 who moved up in the fall when opportunity was 40.43 percent.
For those seeking to advance to E-5, opportunity dropped to 16.33 percent, down from 19.48 last cycle. Quotas dropped by 26, allowing 155 of 949 eligible sailors to sew on a second chevron.
For E-6 hopefuls, there are 31 fewer quotas. Opportunity is 11.39 percent, down from 13.01 last fall, dropping FTS E-6 opportunity slightly below that of the regular active component.
http://www.navytimes.com/projects/careers/navy/e4toe6quotas/2010/fts/">Full-time support advancement quotas
Reserve petty officer advancements
For the selected reserve, 3,077 selected reservists will move into the petty officer ranks or get an additional stripe. The chance to advance to E-4 was 68.6 percent, down from 71.3 percent last fall. For E-5, a 29.5 percent shot at advancing was down from 36.2 percent, and at E-6, the drop was from 15.8 percent to 13.1 percent.