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Message accomplished

You can’t turn on the news these days without having coverage of the latest celebrity miscreant interrupted by the endless debate over pulling out of Iraq. OK, it’s not really debate, it’s arguing, but you get my point. If you’re paying attention to the arguments and aren’t just surfing through to the Paris Hilton channel, here are three things to consider before you decide whether to stay in Iraq and for how long.

First, exorcise your ghosts of Vietnam once and for all. America can’t stay in Iraq long enough to convince Muslim extremists they lost or convince every Westerner we won. No matter when America withdraws from Iraq — be it in two years, five years, 20 years or tomorrow — the hard-core religious imperialists in the Middle East will dust off their CaveCams to trumpet their defeat of the Great Satan and herald the medieval paradise ahead. And, right on cue, the devoted opponents of the “War on Terror” in the West will perform their own dazzling displays of mental gymnastics in other news outlets; so, prepare yourself to ignore them.

It matters not that the U.S. toppled two sovereign governments, rid the world of the latest Saladin and facilitated the formation of a genuine, representative government in Iraq. If our enemies admit defeat, their dream dies, and they’ve been carefully cultivating their dream of a global Muslim theocracy for centuries. And if you’re one of those people hoping to some day see Osama Bin Laden and his disciples reformed through dialogue, decked out in Levis, sipping raspberry chai and munching on veggie burgers while surfing the New Republic on iPhones, you’re more delusional than they are. But, I digress.

The bottom line on timing is that the key message in the post-Sept. 11 era has been sent: If you or someone you support threatens America too directly or tries to kill Americans wholesale, Americans will put aside their ancient obsession with commerce and get off the geopolitical couch to kick you where it hurts most. The preachers of hate and burqa merchants may not have listened, but every government in the world that wants to remain in power heard it loud and clear.

Second, Iraqis hold the key to victory in Iraq. The most important developments in Iraq will occur after America withdraws. The Iraqi government must have the opportunity to manage its affairs and secure its territory without the benefit of a vast American military shoring up its legitimacy on every street corner. Only when an elected Iraqi government succeeds, or the Iraqi people throw their own ineffectual set of bums out, will anyone be able to claim a win. To be sure, America has made progress in Iraq, but progress is not victory.

As a result, the most important death in Iraq will be the one that makes a majority of Iraqis say, “Enough!” America and its coalition allies can surge and redeploy at will to influence the ebb and flow of violence, but the enemies of stability have the luxury of time; America doesn’t. At some point, America must walk away and let Iraq stand or fall on its own.

Third, the most important campaign of the war on terrorism is yet to come. After the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, the invasion of Afghanistan and routing of the Taliban was a war everyone expected and no reasonable person questioned. As noted previously, the advocates and opponents of the war in Iraq will debate its timing, necessity and merits for years to come and argue endlessly whether America was committed to winning.

Regardless, what matters most now is not how America gets out of Iraq, but whether America continues to pursue terrorists militarily and punish governments that harbor or assist them. The most important thing we can do on the day America leaves Iraq is to make sure the last American out leaves a sign on the door saying, “We’ll be back,” and actually means it.

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The writer, a Navy lieutenant commander, holds a master’s degree in national security studies with a focus on the Middle East. His e-mail address is vanavery@lhd2.navy.mil.