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Petraeus: More troops or not, Afghan ops a go

Although a major influx of troops in an increasingly violent Afghanistan isn’t likely until next spring and summer at the earliest, the incoming Central Command commander said Tuesday that he would not necessarily agree that U.S. and NATO forces now serving there are in what amounts to a six-month holding pattern until reinforcements arrive.

“I’m not sure I would say that,” Army Gen. David Petraeus told reporters following a speech at the annual meeting of the Association of the U.S. Army in Washington.

Petraeus said the commander of U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan, Army Gen. David McKiernan — who said Oct. 1 he needs an additional four brigade combat teams, plus aviation assets, support troops and perhaps more Afghan security force trainers — “has plans that he’s putting in place that they’re beginning to execute.” He did not elaborate.

But Petraeus, who has been busy preparing to take the CentCom reins Oct. 31, said it’s clear that more troops are needed and that McKiernan will begin receiving additional forces to combat the growing insurgency in early 2009.

Petraeus, however, would not yet commit to supporting McKiernan’s entire request, which would exceed 20,000 additional troops.

“There’s no question but that Afghanistan needs additional forces,” Petraeus said. “Everyone agrees on that. ... Precisely how many, what configuration and so forth ... will be sorted out over the course of the months ahead. Clearly, as forces become available, as they’re re-deployed or not deployed to Iraq, there’s a potential of using them in Afghanistan.”

If Petraeus ends up supporting the full request, the decision to send them will be up to the next president. Both candidates have called for boosting troop strength in Afghanistan.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates has said that three additional brigades will be rested and available for deployment to Afghanistan in the spring and summer of 2009 — although Gates has also said the U.S. needs to “think long and hard about how big a footprint we want in Afghanistan compared, say, to growing the Afghan army much faster.”

Petraeus acknowledged the rise in insurgent violence that has prompted calls for more troops in Afghanistan, which have also come from congressional quarters.

“In some respects, there’s been a downward spiral in some areas,” Petraeus said. “The trends have gone in the wrong direction. So in certain areas, you clearly have to arrest those trends, reverse them, and then begin moving forward.”

But not every area of Afghanistan is so problematic, Petraeus said, noting that “there has been ... continued progress in certain areas.”

McKiernan has said he agrees there are improvements but added Oct. 1, “In large parts of Afghanistan, we don’t see progress. And we’re into a very tough counterinsurgency fight and will be for some time.”

This year has seen a record number of U.S. troops killed in Afghanistan. Also, marked improvements in Iraqi security convinced President Bush to announce Sept. 9 the deployment to Afghanistan of another 5,300 troops, in the form of Marine battalion and an Army brigade combat team to Afghanistan — units that had been slated for duty in Iraq.

That’s not going to make the big difference McKiernan is after. When troops rotating home are taken into account, Afghanistan will see a net gain from those deployments of only about 1,500 U.S. soldiers and Marines.

Petraeus said that along with a number of “ongoing” assessments of Afghanistan strategy by the White House, the Joint Chiefs and CentCom, the command will begin a “several-month-long” joint strategic assessment in November that looks across the command’s entire 20-nation area of responsibility.

A key to success in Afghanistan, Petraeus said, is a sustained U.S. commitment to Pakistan.

U.S. officials believe Pakistan’s rugged Federally Administered Tribal Area, which borders Afghanistan, is a safe haven for the senior leadership of al-Qaida and insurgent groups who launch cross-border attacks.

Efforts to counter that threat are both overt and covert. The U.S. supports Pakistan’s paramilitary Frontier Corps and has offered counterinsurgency training to the Pakistani army.

And Gates on Sept. 23 appeared to acknowledge to Congress what U.S. officials have long denied — that American forces based in Afghanistan have crossed the Pakistani border to strike insurgents. According to The New York Times, the CIA has been launching cross-border missile attacks from unmanned aerial vehicles for several years.

Gates also said the Pakistani army has been actively engaging FATA-based insurgents.

Petraeus said that is a positive sign.

Despite significant security challenges in Pakistan, he said, “You also see new leadership there ... who increasingly and explicitly recognize the existential nature of the threat” in the FATA.