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Retired general sees Iraq ‘endgame’

The U.S. is “clearly in the endgame in Iraq,” a retired general and defense analyst says in his latest report on the war, adding that security and economic gains in Iraq are “unlikely to be reversible” and that the U.S. is on track to withdraw most of its combat forces within the next 36 months.

And although continued success in Iraq and the deteriorating security situation in neighboring Afghanistan likely will force a “more rapid forced drawdown than desirable in Iraq” to boost troop strength, retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey said he feels the U.S. will successfully manage this “tricky balance.”

McCaffrey’s estimate that any U.S. withdrawal should take place over 36 months is twice the 18-month timeframe proposed by President-elect Barack Obama during the presidential campaign. Obama added the caveat that he would pursue a withdrawal in that timeframe if conditions allow and military commanders agree.

The after-action report, the sixth in a series that have followed McCaffrey’s visits to Iraq on behalf of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, where he is an adjunct professor of international affairs, was based on interviews and meetings with dozens of U.S. and Iraqi military and civilian leaders and officials, from the rank of command sergeant major up to U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker and Multi-National Force-Iraq commander Army Gen. Ray Odierno.

McCaffrey, pointing out that the report was not submitted for clearance by MNF-I and is an “unclassified and objective analysis” of the situation in Iraq, touted a dramatically improved security situation, not only in terms of decreased attacks on civilians and U.S. troop deaths, but also in ethnic strife that “has all but stopped”; substantial improvements in Iraqi Security Forces; new economic ties between Turkey and the semi-autonomous Kurdish north; and increasingly competent leadership in Iraq’s defense and interior ministries.

McCaffrey also praised the “courage and effectiveness” of U.S. troops.

But he also cautioned that many potential problems remain that could undo the entire 5½-year effort:

• Iraqi political failure to ratify the Status of Forces Agreement and Strategic Framework Agreement by Jan. 1, when the U.N. mandate authorizing the U.S. presence expires.

• Iranian aggression that produces a U.S. military response.

• Continued unrest and continued potential Turkish aggression against separatists in the Kurdish north.

• A premature U.S. withdrawal “before the Iraqis have developed a fully functioning security presence” in all 18 provinces.

McCaffrey also warned that the Iraqi government “remains largely dysfunctional” in its ability to deliver municipal services; agriculture is “grossly underfunded”; unemployment is 20 percent and “underemployment” is “probably 60 percent”; the financial system is immature; and the country has suffered a “brain drain” as a result of flight from chaos or murder.

McCaffrey ended with a scathing critique of Pentagon leadership during the war’s early years and concluded with a cautionary note.

“As the Saudis note with great sadness, we entered Iraq uninvited, ... but we must not leave the same way. It is essential for both U.S. and Mideast security that we pull out of Iraq in a deliberate and responsible manner — and leave a stable and functioning state. This is clearly within our capabilities.”