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Intel chief: Economic crisis creates threats

The economic crisis has trumped bullets and bombs in the intelligence agencies’ latest assessment of threats to the United States.

It is a reflection of the depth of the unfolding recession, but also of the progress made in the war against terrorists and the Obama administration’s more expansive definition of national security.

Sounding more like an economist than the warfighting Navy commander he once was, National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair told a Senate panel Thursday that if the crisis lasts more than two years, it could cause some nations’ governments to collapse.

And a number of allies the United States depends on might no longer be able to afford to meet their own defense and humanitarian obligations, he said.

Blair said already the financial meltdown, which started in the United States and quickly infected other countries, has eroded confidence in American economic leadership and belief in free markets.

“Time is probably our greatest threat. The longer it takes for the recovery to begin, the greater the likelihood of serious damage to U.S. strategic interests,” he told the Senate Intelligence Committee, as Congress prepares to vote Friday on a $789 billion stimulus package.

Blair’s 49-page statement opened with a detailed description of the economic crisis. It was a marked departure from threat briefings of years past, which focused first on traditional threats and battlefields like Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan.

“The primary near-term security concern of the United States is the global economic crisis and its geopolitical implications,” he said in a written statement for the committee.

One reason for the new ranking is progress made in the last year against al-Qaida. A year ago, al-Qaida was said to have reconstituted its operations in the lawless tribal area between Pakistan and Afghanistan. But that has changed.

“Because of the pressure we and our allies have put on al-Qaida’s core leadership in Pakistan and the continued decline of al-Qaida’s most prominent regional affiliate in Iraq, al-Qaida today is less capable and effective than it was a year ago,” he said.

Four top al-Qaida operatives were killed over the last year, partially a result of newly aggressive rules of engagement for U.S. forces on the Pakistan border. The organization has had to promote junior players figured “considerably less skilled and respected” to fill those slots, he said.

Blair said sustained pressure to force al-Qaida out of the tribal areas could hobble the organization.

However, al-Qaida remains the greatest direct threat to the United States. He said the U.S. has little insight into al-Qaida’s planned attacks, and noted that recruitment of Westerners into the tribal areas since 2006 for al-Qaida training makes detection of potential terrorists even more difficult.

The situation in Afghanistan, however, has deteriorated, particularly in the east, south and northwest, and the Taliban insurgency has expanded despite U.S. and international efforts to fight them, Blair acknowledged. Much of the blame falls on the government in Kabul, which has been unable to provide basic services and gainful employment. Blair said that erodes its legitimacy and increases the influence of warlords and the Taliban.

But Afghanistan cannot improve without Pakistan taking control of its border region and providing its own economic development and basic services, he said.

Blair also warned of the growing availability of biological weapons. The traditional barriers to obtaining the starter cultures to agents like anthrax have eroded, and the technical literature and basic laboratory equipment needed to cultivate them are increasingly available to the public.

He warned that attacks on U.S. interests in East Africa are expected to increase in the next year, especially with the growing influence of the Somalia-based terrorist group al-Shabaab and the number of foreign fighters going there to fight alongside them.

Blair also reported the cascading threats that could flow from global climate change; struggles for energy resources, food and water; an exploding population; and the threat to U.S. information networks from hackers.