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Longer deployments due to ‘sub gap’

Sailors aboard attack submarines can expect longer deployments and service-life extensions of their boats to compensate for an expected “submarine gap” in the years to come, according to Navy documents and congressional analysts.

Under the current 30-year procurement plan, the number of attack subs will fall below the required 48 boats in 2022 and will bottom out six years later at 41 boats. The shortfall will continue until 2034.

“[The Navy] doesn’t have a lot of choice in this gap,” said one congressional analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity. “This is the result of decisions made in the past 20 years that are coming home to roost.”

The Navy plans to meet typical requirements with longer deployments and older boats. The service lives of 16 Los Angeles-class subs will be lengthened by as much as 24 months, and at least one month will be added to 40 deployments — about 25 percent of total deployments — over an eight-year period to provide the roughly 10 subs combatant commanders need on any given day. The typical attack sub deployment is six months; it was unclear when the longer deployments are expected to begin.

“There are concerns with this, such as how fast they use up the [nuclear] cores and the burden [longer deployments] will place on crews and families,” the congressional analyst said. “This is not palatable, politically or in the Pentagon. But there’s really no way around it.”

Even with those changes, the Navy will not be able to meet the peak projected wartime demand of about 35 deployed SSNs, according to a July 2009 Congressional Research Service report. This would require the purchase of at least four additional attack subs, and the Navy has no such plans.

The pending 12-ship ballistic-missile submarine replacement adds to the dilemma. If the Navy doesn’t get an additional $80 billion from Congress, a request expected to be presented in the coming months, SSBN procurement could eat up to half of the annual shipbuilding budget for 14 years, according to the CRS report. This would result in even fewer attack subs being built, bringing the force to a low of 40 in 2028 and rising by only four boats through 2040.

A replacement for the Ohio-class SSBN is very likely. Though lawmakers, presidential advisers and former four-stars want to eliminate one leg of the nuclear arms “triad” in the Nuclear Posture Review, most analysts feel the cuts will come from land or air, not from the SSBN force. The review is expected to be released in early February.

No wiggle room

Given the time required for concept, design and construction, procurement of a new SSBN must happen now to ensure the mission is covered when Ohio-class subs start retiring in fiscal 2027. The Navy admits there’s no wiggle room, and it already has completed an analysis of alternatives and is expected to seek $500 million in fiscal 2011 for research and development.

“This is the Navy’s major cost issue of the 2020s,” the congressional analyst said.

While the Navy prepares to fight for funding in the forthcoming Quadrennial Defense Review, its best chance to gain support is in Groton, Conn., and Newport News, Va. There, the Virginia class has become a study in building subs better, faster and cheaper.

The Navy is poised to trim sub production to 60 months, thanks largely to significant changes in the ship’s design and shipyard production process. For example, the Block II boats now in production are built in four sections instead of 10, and they are the first to be delivered with the hull coating installed. Such changes will enable delivery of two subs per year starting in 2011 and will cut the cost of each sub to $2 billion in fiscal 2005 dollars, said Capt. Michael Jabaley, Virginia-class program manager.

Two subs a year is not unprecedented. Three Los Angeles-class subs were produced annually during the Cold War, and some years saw twice that. But as that class is decommissioned over the next 15 years, the Navy will “have to ramp up to keep up,” Jabaley said.

Cutting cost does not always mean cutting capabilities. Block III subs — the final eight boats of the 18 approved in the Virginia class — will replace spherical array sonar with less expensive but equally capable large aperture bow array sonar.

Because the spherical array access trunk is no longer required, two large payload tubes similar to those found on cruise missile subs will replace 12 individual vertical launch tubes with all their electrical and hydraulic support apparatus.

“We still can shoot 12 missiles, but instead of 12 tubes, we have two larger tubes,” Jabaley said. “This means we also can pull canisters out and have large payloads such as [unmanned underwater vehicles] or additional kinetic payloads such as special operations gear or underwater launched anti-air weapons against [anti-submarine warfare] helos.”

The career submariner said he is keeping a watchful eye to ensure necessary bow modifications do not push the Block IIIs past the 60-month window. And he’s not the only one watching.

What’s at stake

Because the Block IV contract will come up in three years, lawmakers are closely monitoring the Virginia class to see whether the Navy can build subs as cheaply and quickly as it claims. The answer will have significant weight on future production.

“Achieving the goal of building subs that fast and at that cost may not give the Navy all the benefits it wants, but the sub force will be in great jeopardy if the Navy doesn’t pull it off,” the congressional analyst said.

But if the Navy can do it, future contracts are likely as Congress, and especially the House Armed Services Committee, has been supportive of procuring two attack subs annually. That would keep the sub gap contained in the 12-year window.

Jabaley is confident the Navy can meet that goal, pointing out that they will meet the 60-month window well ahead of schedule in the Block II contract. However, he does admit a slight increase to 66 months is likely during the transition into Block III.

“We knew this was probable, and we planned for it,” he said.

Quality control is essential to keeping a grip on unforeseen problems that could throw the 60-month build window out of whack.

New Mexico, the sixth Virginia-class sub, was delivered in December after 70 months. The good news: It was delivered four months early. The bad news: It was delayed five weeks — a delay that could be crippling in a 60-month window. It was caused by workmanship problems discovered in the weapons room handling system. Similar problems also were found on at least three other Virginia-class submarines.

“You don’t know the weakest link until it snaps,” Jabaley said. “But we have added and continue to add a myriad of reviews and supervisory oversights to ensure deliveries are not delayed.”