The Iranian-flagged M/V Touska was transiting the north Arabian Sea toward Bandar Abbas, Iran, when it was intercepted by the guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance and issued warnings that it was in violation of the blockade, U.S. Central Command announced on Sunday.

“After Touska’s crew failed to comply with repeated warnings over a six-hour period, Spruance directed the vessel to evacuate its engine room,” the CENTCOM release stated. “Spruance disabled Touska’s propulsion by firing several rounds from the destroyer’s 5-inch MK 45 Gun into Touska’s engine room.”

U.S. Central Command published a brief video of the encounter.

U.S. Marines assigned to the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit subsequently boarded the vessel, the release stated. The Touska remains in U.S. custody.

Acknowledging the encounter in a post on Truth Social, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that “an Iranian-flagged cargo ship named TOUSKA, nearly 900 feet long and weighing almost as much as an aircraft carrier, tried to get past our Naval Blockade, and it did not go well for them.”

“The Iranian crew refused to listen, so our Navy ship stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engineroom,” Trump added. “The TOUSKA is under U.S. Treasury Sanctions because of their prior history of illegal activity. We have full custody of the ship, and are seeing what’s on board!”

The U.S. Navy blockade, which involves 10,000 troops, over a dozen warships and more than 100 fighter and surveillance aircraft, went into effect on April 13 following failed peace talks between the U.S. and Iran.

Any vessels transiting to and from Iranian ports are subject to the blockade, CENTCOM officials stated, while ships not visiting Iranian ports can still navigate the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran, meanwhile, said it would retaliate for Sunday’s incident, as tensions continued to escalate Sunday amid a fragile ceasefire.

“We warn that the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will soon respond and retaliate against this armed piracy by the U.S. military,” an Iranian military spokesperson said, according to state media.

Iranian state media also reported that Tehran had rejected new peace talks, citing the ongoing blockade, threatening rhetoric and Washington’s shifting positions and “excessive demands.”

“One cannot restrict Iran’s oil exports while expecting free security for others. The choice is clear: either a free oil market for all, or the risk of significant costs for everyone,” Iran’s First Vice President Mohammadreza Aref wrote on social media.

U.S. forces have encountered and redirected 25 commercial vessels since launching the blockade, according to CENTCOM.

Military Times reporter Riley Ceder and Reuters reporters Daphne Psaledakis, Trevor Hunnicutt and Saad Sayeed contributed to this report.

The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance redirected the vessel back toward Iran after it fled Bandar Abbas, exited the Strait of Hormuz and was making its way along the Iranian coastline, according to a CENTCOM release.

“Ten vessels have now been turned around and zero ships have broken through since the start of the U.S. blockade on Monday,” the command’s post on X stated.

The U.S. Navy blockade, which involves 10,000 troops, over a dozen warships and more than 100 fighter and surveillance aircraft, went into effect Monday after President Donald Trump announced on social media that the U.S. would seal off the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks between the U.S. and Iran.

Any vessels transiting to and from Iranian ports are subject to the blockade, CENTCOM officials stated Tuesday, while ships not visiting Iranian ports can still navigate the Strait of Hormuz.

The America-class amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli is also in the Arabian Sea in support of the blockade.

Failed peace talks occurred on April 11 and 12 in Islamabad, Pakistan, and involved Vice President JD Vance, along with special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

The talks did not yield the intended result after Iran refused to allow the removal of enriched uranium from the country and commit to ending their nuclear program, according to Vance.

The U.S. and Iran are currently in the midst of a two-week ceasefire, which went into effect on April 7.

In particular, they cite the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which sits at the mouth of the Red Sea just off the coast of Yemen. The waterway is highly susceptible to attack from the Iranian-backed Houthis, who control most of Yemen.

“The Houthis are the ones who pioneered, in a way, this idea of using asymmetric capabilities to disrupt maritime traffic,” Mona Yacoubian, the director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in an interview with Military Times. “It has to be the right set of circumstances, but we could potentially see a situation in which they choose to engage on Red Sea shipping and ships attempting to cross the Bab el-Mandeb and also — by virtue of which way the water flows — the Suez Canal.”

Skeptics fear that if the Houthis stepped fully off the sidelines and into an aggressive posture on Bab el-Mandeb, another economic shock would result. This, in turn, would greatly complicate Trump’s desire to claim a victory in the war on Iran that began with combined U.S. and Israel strikes on Feb. 28.

Elisabeth Kendall, president of Girton College at the University of Cambridge, said that the Houthis’ restraint thus far should be seen as strategic patience, not avoidance.

“The reality is that asymmetric warfare suits the Houthis. They don’t need to be accurate or sophisticated. They just need to harass shipping to achieve their goal of disrupting trade and pressuring the U.S.,” Kendall told Military Times. “The Houthis are seasoned fighters. They have been at war — on and off — for over 20 years. Their battle logic is unlike our own inasmuch as war has become a way of life and they are relatively comfortable with absorbing casualties."

Kendall explained that a Houthi attempt to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would “likely prompt a further spike in oil prices and, in time, inflation,” significantly ramping up pressure on Trump.

This all takes place against the backdrop of a fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. After peace talks reached an impasse over the weekend, Trump recalibrated his strategy, aiming to turn the tables on Iran’s economy by seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz.

On Sunday, the president said the U.S. Navy would begin blockading “any and all ships trying to enter, or leave,” the strait. By Monday, U.S. Central Command had refined the operational scope to only apply to vessels bound for or departing Iranian ports. CENTCOM stressed that it would not impede on the freedom of navigation and will be “enforced impartially.” The Pentagon has not explained how the mission would be carried out.

Under international maritime law, naval forces have the right of visit and search, which authorizes them to board vessels — regardless of flag — to determine their “enemy character.” This categorization hinges on whether ships are materially supporting Iran’s war effort, including through arms transfers or financing. If so, they may be subject to diversion or capture by U.S. forces.

James Kraska, professor of international law at the Naval War College, told Military Times that the approach essentially constitutes an expansion of longstanding bipartisan sanctions targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

“The U.S. sanctions are so aggressive that it’s sanctioned other entities that aid or facilitate transactions that benefit Iran,” Kraska said.

He added that he sees the blockade and the American assertion of the right of visit and search as “simply a wartime extension of what we’ve been doing for a decade. It’s economic warfare.”

Trump’s blockade is expected to cost Iran roughly $435 million a day — or $13 billion a month — Miad Maleki, a former official with the Treasury Department, wrote in a post on X.

Vice President JD Vance has argued that with this move, Trump has flipped the script on the Islamic Republic.

“What [the Iranians] have done is engage in this act of economic terrorism against the entire world,” Vance said in an interview with Fox News on Monday. “They’ve basically threatened any ship that’s moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Well, as the president of the United States showed, two can play at that game.”

Trump also said in a post on Truth Social that the U.S. would interdict every vessel in international waters that had paid a toll to Iran, and begin destroying mines that he said the Iranians had dropped in the strait, a choke point for about 20% of global energy supplies that Iran has blocked.

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” he said.

“I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas,” Trump added.

“Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!” he added.

Each side had earlier blamed the other for the failure of talks to end six weeks of fighting that has killed thousands, roiled the global economy and sent oil prices soaring.

“The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement, and I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America,” Vice President JD Vance, the head of the U.S. delegation at the weekend talks, said earlier.

“We’ve made very clear what our red lines are,” Vance added.

IRAN CITES LACK OF TRUST

Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who led his country’s delegation along with Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, blamed the U.S. for not winning Tehran’s trust despite his team offering “forward-looking initiatives.”

“The U.S. has understood Iran’s logic and principles and it’s time for them to decide whether they can earn our trust or not,” Qalibaf said on X.

The talks, after a ceasefire earlier in the week, were the first direct U.S.-Iranian meeting in more than a decade and the highest-level discussions since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Vance said Iran had chosen not to accept American terms, including not to build nuclear weapons.

“I could go into great detail, and talk about much that has been gotten but, there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS!” Trump said later.

Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said “excessive” U.S. demands had hindered reaching a deal. Other Iranian media said there was agreement on a number of issues, but the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program were the main points of difference.

‘IMPERATIVE’ TO MAINTAIN CEASEFIRE

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said it was “imperative” to preserve the ceasefire that was agreed last Tuesday as the sides attempt to wind down a war that began on February 28 with air strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran.

Israeli security cabinet minister Zeev Elkin told Army Radio that more talks were still an option, but added: “The Iranians are playing with fire.”

In a brief press conference, Vance did not mention reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Even as the talks took place, U.S. ally Israel continued bombing Tehran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, insisting that that conflict was not part of the Iran-U.S. ceasefire. Iran says the fighting in Lebanon must stop.

The Israeli military said it struck Hezbollah rocket launchers overnight into Sunday and black smoke could be seen rising in the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital Beirut on Sunday. In Israeli villages near the border, air raid sirens sounded, warning of incoming rocket fire from Lebanon.

IRANIAN DEMANDS

Tehran is demanding control of the Strait of Hormuz, payment of war reparations and a ceasefire across the region, including in Lebanon, according to Iranian state TV and officials, as well as the release of its frozen assets abroad.

Tehran also wants to collect transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite the differences in Islamabad, three supertankers fully laden with oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, shipping data showed, in what appeared to be the first vessels to exit the Gulf since the ceasefire deal.

Hundreds of tankers are still stuck in the Gulf, waiting to exit during the two-week ceasefire period.

Trump’s stated goals have shifted, but as a minimum he wants free passage for global shipping through the strait and the crippling of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program to ensure it cannot produce an atomic bomb.

Tehran has long denied seeking to build a nuclear weapon.

“We’re now starting the process of clearing out the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post, adding that “all 28” of Iran’s “mine dropper boats are also lying at the bottom of the sea.”

Minutes before Trump’s post, reports started to emerge about the presence of U.S. Navy ships in the strait.

An Axios journalist, citing an unnamed U.S. official, posted that “several” U.S. ships had crossed the strait on Saturday, though Iranian state TV soon after reported a denial from an official with Iran’s military.

Trump has repeatedly said that American forces have destroyed Iran’s navy and air force while crippling its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

But fear of Iranian attacks on shipping over the past several weeks has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical conduit for global oil supplies. Throttling the strait has disrupted global energy markets.

U.S. gasoline prices have spiked even though most of the oil that flows through the waterway does not go to the United States.

Representatives from the U.S. and Iran began talks hosted by Pakistan in Islamabad on Saturday amid a fragile ceasefire in the conflict.

In the 40 days since the start of Operation Epic Fury against Iran, 13 U.S. service members have been killed and 381 have been wounded, according to data provided Wednesday by U.S. Central Command.

The Defense Department has added the war on Iran to its Defense Casualty Analysis System, a database that catalogues combat casualties dating to World War I.

As of Tuesday, the department listed seven service members as having been killed by enemy fire during the operation, presumably the Army soldiers who died March 1 in Saudi Arabia during an Iranian airstrike.

It also classified six Air Force deaths as “non-hostile,” the crew of a KC-135 refueling aircraft who died while supporting air operations.

And it said that 346 were wounded in action: 231 soldiers, 63 sailors, 33 airmen and 19 Marines.

But U.S. Central Command told Military Times Wednesday that the number of wounded now stands at 381. They did not provide any details on the extent or types of injuries.

In mid-March, CBS News reported that roughly 25 troops were being treated at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany, a dozen were evacuated to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland, and one had been transported to Brooke Army Medical Center, DOD’s only Level I trauma center and home to the department’s top burn unit.

The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire late Tuesday. Under the terms, the U.S. agreed to stop military strikes while Iran said it would immediately open the Strait of Hormuz, the key body of water through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas ships.

Iran has offered a 10-point proposal for ending the conflict, which President Donald Trump described as a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”

Attacks continued in the early hours of the temporary truce in Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. During a press conference Wednesday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Iran would be wise to “find a way to get the carrier pigeon” to their troops to stop shooting.

“We’ll be hanging around. We’re not going anywhere. We will make sure that Iran complies with the ceasefire and ultimately comes to the table and makes a deal. … Our troops are prepared to restart at a moment’s notice,” Hegseth said.

As of midday Wednesday, just a handful of cargo vessels had traversed the strait and several oil tankers were heading to the passage, according to apps that track the maritime shipping industry.

“We have seen an uptick in the traffic in the strait today and I will reiterate the president’s expectation and demand that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened immediately and quickly and safely,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said during a press conference Wednesday.

The U.S. military has more than 50,000 personnel in the region. According to U.S. Central Command, they have supported more than 13,000 strikes on targets and destroyed at least 155 Iranian vessels.

Iran’s health ministry has reported that more than 2,000 people have been killed and 20,000 wounded since the operation began.

A CENTCOM official declined to discuss the number of troops evacuated from theater, saying that the unit will not discuss locations or movements “to protect privacy and security of our service members.”

According to the official, 344 of the injured personnel have returned to duty. The official declined to describe the nature of the injuries, including wounds or head injuries.

“We have no additional information to provide,” the official said.

Walter Reed issued a press release Wednesday detailing how its medical evacuation team supports the transport of injured personnel from the battlefield to the facility, but it included no details on the number of personnel that have been evacuated from Operation Epic Fury.

According to the release, Walter Reed supports a 14-member team of Army, Navy and Air Force personnel who coordinate transport across U.S. Transportation Command, U.S. European Command, the Deployed Warrior Medical Management Center at Landstuhl and Air Force aeromedical staging facilities.

During the press conference Wednesday, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine acknowledged the sacrifices U.S. military personnel have made during the operation.

“I’m humbled by the service and sacrifice each and every day that I am lucky enough to see,” Caine said. “I ask that we never forget our fallen and their families — especially the 13 fallen from Operation Epic Fury. May we always be worthy of their sacrifice and honor their legacy,” Caine said.

Iranian state TV flashed an announcement claiming that Trump had accepted Iran’s terms for ending the war, describing it as a “humiliating retreat” by the U.S. president.

Iran said talks between the U.S. and Iran would begin on Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan.

Trump’s announcement on social media represented an abrupt turnaround from earlier in the day, when Trump issued an extraordinary warning that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if his demands were not met.

Trump said the last-minute deal, negotiated with Pakistan serving as a mediator, was subject to Iran’s agreement to pause its blockade of oil and gas supplies through the strait, which typically handles about one-fifth of global oil shipments.

“This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East.”

Two White House officials confirmed that Israel has also agreed to the two-week ceasefire and to suspend its bombing campaign on Iran. A few minutes after Trump’s announcement, the Israeli military said that it identified missiles launched from Iran towards Israel.

Trump, who has issued a series of threats in recent weeks only to back away, claimed progress between the two sides. He said Iran had presented a 10-point proposal that was a “workable basis” for negotiations and that he expected an agreement to be “finalized and consummated” during the two-week ceasefire.

Abrupt turnaround

The abrupt turnaround capped a whirlwind day that was dominated by Trump’s threat to destroy every bridge and power plant in Iran unless Tehran reopened the strait, which unnerved world leaders, rattled global financial and energy markets and drew widespread condemnation, including criticism from the head of the United Nations and Pope Leo.

As the clock ticked down to Trump’s 8 p.m. EDT deadline, U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran intensified, hitting railway and road bridges, an airport and a petrochemical plant. U.S. forces attacked targets on Kharg Island, home to Iran’s main oil export terminal.

In response, Iran declared it would no longer hold back from hitting its Gulf neighbors’ infrastructure and said it had carried out fresh strikes on a ship in the Gulf and a huge Saudi petrochemical complex. Booms were heard in Doha late on Tuesday night, according to a Reuters witness in the Qatari capital.

The war, now in its sixth week, has claimed more than 5,000 lives in nearly a dozen countries, including more than 1,600 civilians in Iran, according to tallies from government sources and human rights groups.

The closure of the strait, through which almost a fifth of the world’s oil supply typically travels, has sharply increased oil prices, escalating the chances of a global economic downturn or even recession.

With the U.S. midterm election campaign ramping up, Trump’s approval ratings have hit their lowest level ever, leaving his Republican Party at risk of losing its grip on Congress. Polls show sizable majorities of Americans opposed to the war and frustrated by the rising cost of gasoline.

Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of U.S. Central Command, gave the order after intelligence indicated a nexus of senior IRGC leaders was meeting at the location, the official said.

The B-2s are equipped to drop 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs, also known as GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators, to destroy deeply fortified structures. Their immense payload allows them to strike targets at a depth beyond the reach of conventional munitions, while their flying-wing design enables them to penetrate sophisticated defenses with minimal detection.

US special forces rescue second F-15 airman from Iran

That weapon was key to last June’s Operation Midnight Hammer, when bunker busters battered three of Iran’s nuclear installations. The B-2s made roughly the same 7,000-mile journey this time.

At the six-week mark of the assault against Iran, CENTCOM reported that U.S. forces had struck over 13,000 sites across the country. Other bombers in America’s squadrons, such as the B-1 and the B-52, have played prominent roles in the current campaign, Pentagon officials say.

Cooper’s directive coincided with a high-stakes search-and-rescue effort focused on two American airmen who ejected from a fighter jet over Iranian territory on Friday. President Donald Trump would later liken that operation to a Hollywood scene during a press conference at the White House.

“You would call it central casting if you were doing a movie for location,” he said Monday, revealing that hundreds of personnel were involved in the extraction. “Those pilots came in so fast and so quick and got out of there.”

Moments after extolling U.S. forces from the lectern, the president declared that when it came to the reach of the American military, nothing was off-limits. He warned he could destroy Iran’s critical infrastructure, including bridges and power plants.

The following day, in a post on Truth Social, Trump escalated the rhetoric even further, threatening to eradicate Iranian civilization if Tehran did not capitulate to his demands by 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” Trump wrote. “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Military Times that “only the president knows where things stand and what he will do.”

While the strike underscored Iran’s capabilities, it also reignited a longstanding conversation about the need for the U.S. to protect its aircraft and other high-value equipment with underground bunkers and hardened shelters — an area in which analysts say adversaries like China have invested far more extensively.

“People are asking the valid question: What on earth was this half-billion dollar airplane doing sitting right out in the open, where commercial satellite imagery can see exactly where it was and target a weapon onto that, which apparently they did,” said Tom Shugart, a retired Navy submarine officer and adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security’s Defense Program. “I think there’s really good questions being asked about, what are we doing here? And the bigger question is, why wasn’t it already done?”

As missiles continue to hit U.S. bases in the Middle East, the Pentagon is moving to ramp up investment in base hardening. As reported by The War Zone, which has been writing about gaps in infrastructure hardening and aircraft protection for years, March saw the publication of multiple contracting solicitations seeking near-term and long-term solutions, including a Space Force call for “prefabricated transportable bunkers” and a seven-year task order for infrastructure work at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has called for “more and more bunkers,” saying during a trip to the Middle East that their rapid fielding was a “theater priority,” as also reported by TWZ.

While the emphasis thus far has been on bunkers, Shugart said the protection gap can be seen more clearly in hardened aircraft shelters, which are visible and countable via commercial imagery. A paper, “Concrete Sky,” that he coauthored last year with Timothy Walton of the Hudson Institute found that in the Indo-Pacific, China had more than doubled its number of hardened aircraft shelters between 2010 and 2020, reaching a total of about 800, while the U.S. and its allies had built just two in the same timeframe.

The paper particularly highlights as “foolish” the decision not to build hardened aircraft shelters for the coming fleet of B-21 bombers — describing the shelters as a $30 million investment to protect aircraft worth $600 million apiece.

In recent years, the Army Corps of Engineers has worked to make modest improvements to existing bunkers. Military Times reported in 2024 on reinforcement work including better blast doors intended to protect troops inside from traumatic brain injuries caused by overpressure.

But calls to protect aircraft have been dampened in the past by concerns from leaders about the value of doing so. Shugart noted that Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, then commander of Pacific Air Forces and now chief of staff of the Air Force, said in 2023 that he wasn’t “a big fan of hardening infrastructure.”

“You saw what we did to the Iraqi Air Force and their hardened aircraft shelters,” he said, referring to U.S. strikes during the Gulf War. “They’re not so hard when you put a 2,000-pound bomb right through the roof.”

If that was true at the time, Shugart said, it might not be as true anymore.

While one missile with submunitions may be able to wipe out multiple aircraft on the ground, it would take one missile to destroy a single hardened aircraft shelter, he said. In that scenario, he estimates the missile would cost $20 million; the shelter, $5 million.

“At that point, you’re at least on the right side of the cost curve,” he said.

Moreover, he added, the Air Force’s own think tanks have also pushed for better air base protection. A paper published in 2024 by J. Michael Dahm, a fellow at the Air Force’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, posited that air base defenses had “atrophied” over the last three decades and budgeting for resilient basing had actually declined.

“To date, neither Congress nor the Department of Defense (DOD) have adequately funded air base defense requirements. Without an immediate reversal of this trend, the Air Force may be unable to generate operationally relevant combat airpower in a near peer conflict, which would likely have devastating impacts on joint and combined campaigns,” Dahm wrote. “Inadequate air base defense also strains alliances, incentivizes potential aggressors, and may ultimately result in a strategic loss that has existential consequences for the United States and its allies.”

The Air Force does have a five-year contract for new Expedient Small Asset Protection shelters as part of its Agile Combat Employment strategy — “hangars in a box” for small aircraft or vehicles. It’s not clear, though, how many have been purchased and deployed since the first one was unveiled at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, in 2023.

Walton, at the Hudson Institute, said past assumptions about hardened shelter space constraints — that they’re mainly for fighters and wouldn’t fit a large plane like the AWACS to begin with — may not hold true. He pointed to the large shelters at Andersen that have been constructed for typhoon protection, saying that could be a starting point design for sheltering the biggest and most costly warfighting assets.

“This would give you an ability to put it in the large aircraft shelter, close the doors and have it not be vulnerable to drones or submission or weapons that are coming up top,” he said. “It could still be probably penetrated by certain classes of unitary warheads, but it helps.”

Both Walton and Shugart emphasized that the threat to U.S. aircraft on the tarmac shouldn’t be considered limited to the Indo-Pacific or the Middle East. With the rise of unmanned aircraft crossing onto military installations, the threat is domestic, too, they said.

“There’s been a slate over the past years of incursions of U.S. airfields and other critical infrastructure, even within the contiguous United States; incursions by drones,” Walton said. “And it exposes how vulnerable U.S. aircraft are to attack at airfields.”

Another Hudson Institute analysis called for 12 small hardened aircraft shelters and three large ones per airfield in the Pacific, where it focused, estimating between $9 billion and $10.5 billion to shore up resilient structures and passive defenses.

Trump announced the rescue in the early hours of Sunday in a social media post that described the operation, in a mountainous area of Iran, as “one of the most daring Search and Rescue Operations in U.S. History.”

The airman, the weapons officer of an F-15 jet shot down on Friday, was wounded but “will be just fine,” Trump said in a message on X posted by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. The pilot of the aircraft was rescued on Friday.

A U.S. official said the operation, which Israel said it had assisted, involved dozens of military aircraft and encountered fierce resistance from Iranian forces.

Iran’s military said several U.S. aircraft were destroyed during the operation, including two military transport planes and two Black Hawk helicopters. Footage posted on social media showed burned out aircraft wreckage, which Reuters verified was in the area.

RESCUE INVOLVED ‘DECEPTION CAMPAIGN’

A U.S. official told Reuters U.S. forces had to destroy at least one of the aircraft used in the rescue mission because it had malfunctioned.

The Wall Street Journal reported that two specially equipped MC-130Js aircraft used to carry out covert infiltrations and to remove troops from beyond enemy lines were blown up by U.S. forces after malfunctioning.

A senior administration official in Washington said the rescue had involved a CIA deception campaign spreading word inside Iran that U.S. forces had already found the missing airman and were moving him on the ground for exfiltration out of the country.

While the Iranians were confused and uncertain of what was happening, the missing weapons officer was located inside a mountain crevice and rescued, the official said in a statement.

The rescue of the airman offered some good news for Trump, who has faced mounting pressure over a war that has sparked a global energy crisis and threatens lasting damage to the world economy.

On Saturday, he renewed a threat to intensify attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure, saying it had 48 hours to open up shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, the vital conduit for around a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supply, which has been largely shut down.

In an expletive-laden social media post on Sunday, Trump said Iran must open the Strait “or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH!”

Adding to the pressure, a senior Israeli defense official said Israel, which attacked a major petrochemicals facility on Saturday, was preparing to attack Iranian energy facilities within the next week, and was awaiting approval from Washington.

But despite the heavy damage to its military and civilian infrastructure by weeks of U.S. and Israeli attacks, Iran’s chokehold over Hormuz has given it a powerful weapon and Tehran showed no sign of complying with Trump’s demand.

It has continued to launch missile and drone attacks against Israel and on Sunday, it underlined its ability to hit U.S. allies in the Gulf by launching a drone attack on petrochemicals plants in Bahrain and Abu Dhabi.

The Revolutionary Guards warned that more attacks would follow if civilian targets in Iran were hit.

PEACE EFFORTS PROVE FRUITLESS

Opinion polls show the war is viewed with skepticism by a majority of Americans, with the risks to U.S. service personnel among their major concerns, along with regional stability and the impact on their own finances.

The war, which has spread into Lebanon, where Israel has resumed its campaign against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah, has killed thousands, mainly in Iran and Lebanon, where a Lebanese soldier was killed on Sunday.

But efforts brokered by Pakistan to bring the two sides to an agreement have so far been fruitless. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran demanded a permanent halt to the U.S. and Israeli campaign launched on Feb. 28.

“What we care about are the terms of a conclusive and lasting END to the illegal war that is imposed on us,” he said in a message on X.

As the war has continued, the damage to vital economic infrastructure in Iran and neighboring Gulf countries has mounted and the impact is set to be felt months and even years after the fighting ends.

With oil coming through Hormuz down to a trickle, ministers from OPEC oil-producing countries were due to meet on Sunday. But the blockade of the Strait and the damage to infrastructure meant an immediate boost to oil production was not considered possible.

Israel and the U.S. have hit military and civilian infrastructure across Iran, including areas near its Bushehr nuclear plant, which Iran said posed a serious risk of radioactive contamination.

But they have not managed to suppress Iran’s ability to strike back and Iranian drone attacks have continued against industrial infrastructure in the Gulf including oil facilities, a major aluminum plant and petrochemical sites in recent days.

Earlier Iran also attacked an Israel-affiliated vessel with a drone in the Strait, setting the ship on fire, state media said, citing the commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ navy.

The incidents show the risks still facing U.S. and Israeli aircraft over Iran, despite assertions by President Donald Trump and his Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that U.S. forces had total control of the skies.

The prospect of a U.S. service member alive and on the run in Iran comes days after Trump threatened to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages” in a war that has killed thousands, sparked an energy crisis and threatened lasting damage to the world economy.

With Iran’s leadership defiant since the start of the war, its foreign minister in principle left the door open for peace talks with the U.S. via mediation from Pakistan, but gave no sign of Tehran’s willingness to bow to Trump’s demands.

“We are deeply grateful to Pakistan for its efforts and have never refused to go to Islamabad. What we care about are the terms of a conclusive and lasting END to the illegal war that is imposed on us,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on X.

Trump on Saturday repeated his threats to intensify attacks on Iran if it failed to reach a deal, or open the key Strait of Hormuz waterway.

“Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. Time is running out - 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. Glory be to GOD!” he said in a post on Truth Social.

As hostilities continued, Iran attacked an Israel-affiliated vessel with a drone in the Strait of Hormuz, setting the ship on fire, Iran’s state media said on Saturday, citing the commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ navy.

Iran has virtually shut the ​strait, which normally carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

IRAN TOUTS NEW AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS

Iranian fire brought down a two-seat U.S. F-15E jet, officials in both countries said, while two U.S. officials said the pilot ejected from an A-10 Warthog fighter aircraft that crashed in Kuwait after being hit by Iranian fire.

Two Black Hawk helicopters engaged in the search for the missing pilot were hit by Iranian fire but made it out of Iranian airspace, the two U.S. officials told Reuters.

The scale of injuries to the crew was unclear.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps said it was combing a southwestern area near where the pilot’s plane came down, while the regional governor promised a commendation for anyone who captured or killed “forces of the hostile enemy.”

Iranians, pummelled by air power since the U.S. and Israel began their attacks on February 28, celebrated the plane downings.

The Khatam al-Anbiya joint military command said it used a new air defence system on Friday, which targeted a U.S. fighter jet, three drones and two cruise missiles.

“The enemy should know that we rely on new air defense systems built by the young, knowledgeable, and proud people of this country, unveiling them one after another in the field,” a Khatam al-Anbiya spokesperson said, according to Iran’s state media.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had targeted various areas in Israel in a wave of missiles and drones. They also targeted U.S. HIMARS rocket launcher batteries in Kuwait and Patriot missile batteries in Bahrain, according to a statement read on state TV.

Increasingly frustrated with the political fallout from the war, Trump is considering a broader cabinet shake-up in the wake of Attorney General Pam Bondi’s removal this week, people familiar with the discussions said.

Any potential reshuffling could serve as a reset for the White House as it confronts rising gas prices, falling ratings and worries for Republicans heading into November’s midterm elections.

“They’ve (U.S.) got themselves caught in a sort of double bind. If they simply leave, it’s really bad, and if they try to get the comprehensive defeat of Iran ... that looks really bad as well,” said Gareth Stansfield, a professor of Middle East politics at the UK’s Exeter University and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

“They’ve managed to get themselves into a lose-lose situation with this one.”

PETROCHEMICAL ZONE STRUCK IN IRAN

Iranian state media reported air strikes at a petrochemical zone in southwestern Iran, with five people reported injured so far.

A projectile also hit an auxiliary building near the perimeter of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant, the Tasnim news agency said, killing one person. The operations of the plant were unaffected.

Russia’s state nuclear company Rosatom evacuated a further 198 of its staff from the site on Saturday, Russian news agencies reported, in evacuations already planned before the latest incident.

The Israeli military meanwhile said it had carried out “a wave of strikes” on Tehran.

Israel has been waging a parallel campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon after the militant group fired at Israel in support of Iran. Early on Saturday, Israel’s military said it was striking the militants’ infrastructure sites in Beirut.

The A-10 pilot was subsequently rescued, two U.S. officials told The New York Times.

Iranian state media stated the A-10 was targeted in southern waters near the strait.

Reports of the A-10 going down Friday followed confirmation that a U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle had been shot down by enemy fire.

One of two F-15E crew members had reportedly been rescued as of Friday afternoon. A search for the second crew member was ongoing.

Search-and-rescue efforts were launched in the immediate aftermath of the fighter jet crash, with videos circulating on social media appearing to show a low-flying U.S. Air Force HC-130 refueling a pair of HH-60G Pave Hawks over Iran.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Friday told Military Times “the president has been briefed” on the downed U.S. F-15E fighter jet.

The Pentagon and U.S. Central Command have not yet responded to requests for comment.

Iranian state media on Friday shared images of aircraft debris alongside claims that Iran had downed a U.S. F-35 fighter jet.

However, images of the aircraft’s tailfin, specifically the red stripe on its vertical stabilizer, are consistent with markings used by the 494th Fighter Squadron, 48th Fighter Wing, based at RAF Lakenheath.

Iran also shared an image of an Advanced Concept Ejection Seat allegedly from the shot down F-15E.

The shoot-down of the F-15E marks the first time during Operation Epic Fury that a manned U.S. aircraft has been brought down by enemy fire.

A U.S. F-35 fighter jet was reportedly hit by enemy fire during a combat mission over Iran on March 19, but was able to make an emergency landing at a U.S. air base in the region.

Six U.S. airmen were killed on March 12 when their KC-135 refueling aircraft crashed in western Iraq during combat operations.

On March 1, three U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets were shot down by a Kuwaiti F/A-18 in a friendly fire incident. All six F-15 crew members ejected and were safely recovered.

The A-10, meanwhile, has seen an increased role since the start of the Iran war. The attack aircraft has joined maritime interdiction operations, among other missions, along the southern edges of the conflict, targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fast-attack watercraft in the Strait of Hormuz, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine said last month.

Military Times reporter Michael Scanlon contributed to this report.

One of two U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle crew members shot down by enemy fire in Iran has been rescued, Israeli media first reported. U.S. officials confirmed the reports in statements to CBS News, Axios and Reuters.

A search for the second crew member is ongoing.

A multi-aircraft search-and-rescue effort for survivors was launched on Friday in the immediate aftermath of the engagement, with videos circulating on social media appearing to show a low-flying U.S. Air Force HC-130 refueling a pair of HH-60G Pave Hawks over Iran.

Israel’s N12 News first reported the rescue of the one crew member.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Friday told Military Times “the president has been briefed” on the downed U.S. F-15E fighter jet.

The Pentagon and U.S. Central Command did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Iranian state media on Friday shared images of aircraft debris alongside claims that Iran had downed a U.S. F-35 fighter jet.

However, images of the aircraft’s tailfin, specifically the red stripe on its vertical stabilizer, are consistent with markings used by the 494th Fighter Squadron, 48th Fighter Wing, based at RAF Lakenheath.

Iran also shared an image of an Advanced Concept Ejection Seat allegedly from the shot down F-15E.

The shoot-down of the F-15E marks the first time during Operation Epic Fury that a manned U.S. aircraft has been brought down by enemy fire.

A U.S. F-35 fighter jet was reportedly hit by enemy fire during a combat mission over Iran on March 19, but was able to make an emergency landing at a U.S. air base in the region.

Six U.S. airmen were killed on March 12 when their KC-135 refueling aircraft crashed in western Iraq during combat operations.

On March 1, three U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets were shot down by a Kuwaiti F/A-18 in a friendly fire incident. All six F-15 crew members ejected and were safely recovered.

A total of 13 U.S. service members have been killed during combat actions against Iran.

A United States F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jet has been shot down by enemy fire over Iran, U.S. officials confirmed.

One of the aircraft’s two crew members has been rescued, Israeli media first reported. U.S. officials confirmed the reports in statements to CBS News and Axios.

A search for the second crew member is ongoing.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Military Times “the president has been briefed” on the downed fighter jet.

The Pentagon and U.S. Central Command did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Officials in Iran, meanwhile, called for the search and capture of any surviving crew members of the jet, according to reports by the semi-official ISNA news agency and the Young Journalists Club.

The governor of one of the Islamic Republic’s provinces stated that anyone who captures or kills the crew would receive a special commendation.

Video circulating on social media appeared to show a low-flying U.S. Air Force HC-130 refueling a pair of HH-60G Pave Hawks over Iran while conducting a search for the downed crew.

Iranian state media on Friday shared images of aircraft debris alongside claims that Iran had downed a U.S. F-35 fighter jet.

However, images of the aircraft’s tailfin, specifically the red stripe on its vertical stabilizer, are consistent with markings used by the 494th Fighter Squadron, 48th Fighter Wing, based at RAF Lakenheath.

Iran also shared an image of an Advanced Concept Ejection Seat allegedly from the shot down F-15E.

The search-and-rescue effort inside Iran during an ongoing conflict greatly raises the stakes for the United States.

U.S. Central Command on Tuesday issued a statement denying claims that “Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps downed an ‘enemy’ fighter jet over Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz.”

“All U.S. fighter aircraft are accounted for,” the CENTCOM statement read. “Iran’s IRGC has made the same false claim at least half a dozen times.”

The location of the downed jet has not yet been confirmed.

The shoot-down marks the first time during Operation Epic Fury that a manned U.S. aircraft has been brought down by enemy fire.

A U.S. F-35 fighter jet was reportedly hit by enemy fire during a combat mission over Iran on March 19, but was able to make an emergency landing at a U.S. air base in the region.

Six U.S. airmen were killed on March 12 when their KC-135 refueling aircraft crashed in western Iraq during combat operations.

On March 1, three U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets were shot down by a Kuwaiti F/A-18 in a friendly fire incident. All six F-15 crew members ejected and were safely recovered.

A total of 13 U.S. service members have been killed during combat actions against Iran.

As of March 31, 348 U.S. personnel have been wounded, Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, U.S. Central Command spokesperson, told DefenseScoop. Of those injured, the majority have since returned to duty. Six remain seriously wounded.

Reuters contributed to this report.

In a March 26 message on his official letterhead, Lt. Gen. Leonard F. Anderson IV asked his troops to consider whether they were ready for the possibility of being called up in the Iran war.

“I ask you directly: Are you truly ready to deploy, fight, and win? Are your skills sharp, your standards high, and your gear prepared for immediate movement?” he wrote. “Is your desert MARPAT readily available, is your gear packed and ready to pick up and move, or is it stored away in a corner of your home? Are your family’s affairs in order?”

These questions, he continued, were about readiness.

“When the call comes, readiness will be assumed, not questioned,” he wrote. “Your readiness is not a declaration; it is a daily commitment.”

The letter made a stir as it circulated on social media channels, with some posters speculating that it was a fake and others questioning its meaning.

“Sounds like a warning order,” one user wrote on LinkedIn.

In an exclusive interview with Military Times on Thursday, Anderson said he hadn’t become aware until a few days prior that his letter, which he confirmed authentic, was creating a stir.

His handwritten postscript — “Fight’s On!” — was, he said, the slogan of Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 312, his old squadron where he flew the F/A-18C Hornet.

“I just felt at a time on the planet and where we are as a force in the Marine Corps, it was just time for a reminder to the reserve force to be ready. And I wanted to get that message out as widely as possible,” he said. “I owe it to not only the Marines to make sure that they’re ready, but to their families, their parents, their wives, whatever it might be, if a reservist is activated and going forward.

“It’s my responsibility as the commander of Marine Forces Reserve to make sure that they are trained, equipped and prepared, and their families are prepared to put them forward. If I didn’t do that, if I wasn’t reminding the force to be ready, I’d be failing as a commander.”

Since the U.S. began strikes on Iran Feb. 28, the prospect of a longer fight involving ground troops has been the subject of intense speculation.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth refused to rule out a boots-on-the-ground scenario early in the assault, saying he did not want to limit military options. The Pentagon has reportedly begun planning for ground operations lasting weeks, and U.S. troops on ships and aircraft continue to pour into the region, at the ready for a major operation.

Anderson said the response he’s seen to his letter has been “overwhelmingly positive.”

“I have not … dived down into the long Reddit chains to dwell on some of the negative comments there,” he said, adding, “I don’t think there was a question out there from the majority of the reserve force that, yes, we should be ready.”

While most of the roughly 33,600 Marine reservists are typically in a drilling status, holding down civilian jobs while maintaining readiness in a contingency, recent conflicts have seen the rapid activation of Reserve forces.

Reserve forces responded immediately in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, and piloted the first fixed-wing aircraft into Afghan airspace, according to Air Force Reserve Command. Likewise, Reserve units were on the ground in the Middle East for months leading up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Formally, full mobilization of the Reserves required a declaration of war or a national emergency by Congress. Partial mobilization of up to one million reservists for up to two years can be triggered by a presidential national emergency declaration.

An additional authority enables the president to call up 200,000 members of the Selected Reserve and up to 30,000 members of the Individual Ready Reserve — those who have recently left active duty — for up to a year.

The Iran conflict has also prompted speculation about the return to military conscription, a process that would require an act of Congress and, in ideal conditions, take the better part of a year to set in motion.

Anderson’s message emphasizes that readiness for drilling troops “is not a theoretical exercise.”

“Our forces are currently engaged in operations connected to Iran and are positioned to preserve stability in the Western Hemisphere,” he wrote. “Our enemies get a vote, and mass mobilization could become reality. We are operating in this environment now. History demands our readiness today, tomorrow, and every day.”

Anderson, who also commands Marine Forces South, is a career Hornet pilot and graduate of the Navy Fighter Weapons School, or TOPGUN, who served as a member of the Blue Angels demonstration team from 2002-2004.

He deployed twice to Iraq and Qatar in support of Operation Inherent Resolve, the coalition fight against ISIS. He has said the release of the original Top Gun film in 1986 influenced his decision to join the Marine Corps.

“Check your readiness,” Anderson wrote in the conclusion to his message. “Tighten your standards. Prepare your family.”

“Expertise is not a drone, but a skill, a strategy, a system where a drone is one part of the defense,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Reuters on Monday.

Ukraine now produces roughly 1,000 interceptor drones a day through hundreds of vetted manufacturers, deliberately dispersed so that no single strike can cripple the supply chain, Zelenskyy reported last month. The country has the technical capacity to double that figure, he said, but lacks the budget to do so.

While Ukraine has built that infrastructure gradually over the last few years, most countries now trying to integrate interceptors into the air defense have not invested in building the necessary logistical framework needed to effectively build, arm or deploy the cheap flyers.

Some countries have already learned this lesson the hard way.

After some Ukrainian companies built interceptor drone factories abroad without state approval, multiple buyers complained because the drones were sold without the warheads or expertise needed to operate them properly, Zelenskyy said on Friday, per Ukrainska Pravda.

“They had also been sold a certain number of interceptors — again without explosives,” Zelenskyy said about a European country he visited recently. “And they asked me whether we could send more operators. I said no.”

The bottleneck isn’t the interceptor itself, but the logistics infrastructure to produce and sustain them at scale, officials said.

“It seems there is still a misconception,” Artem Moroz, head of investor relations at Brave1, wrote on LinkedIn last month.

Brave1, Ukraine’s defense-tech accelerator, has worked with more than 500 defense startups since 2023 and now serves as the primary gateway for foreign governments seeking access to Ukrainian drone technology and production partnerships.

“Many believe Ukraine could simply send a few hundred interceptor drones to the Middle East and stop the Shahed drones currently hitting critical infrastructure,” Moroz said. “Drone warfare is far more complex than that.

“Yes, hardware matters. And Ukraine knows how to build drones at scale. But the real advantage lies in the infrastructure behind them.”

Companies launch drone-production innovations

The gap between buying a drone and building the system to sustain it is the market several defense companies are now racing to fill.

A handful of defense companies from Helsinki to San Francisco are offering the production line, the detection system and the supply infrastructure compressed into a portable unit that can be shipped anywhere to produce up to dozens of drones a day.

Sensofusion, a Finnish defense company founded in 2016, sells a full-cycle drone production chain as one of the latest innovators in this arena.

The company’s $2.4 million (€2.1 million Euros) Tactical Drone Factory is a standard 20-foot shipping container equipped with industrial 3D printers, an electronics assembly station and enough spares to run around the clock with a crew of three, producing up to 50 interceptor drones a day, according to the company.

What sets the Finnish system apart from its competitors is that it’s not just a factory: It ships as a package with Sensofusion’s Airfence radio-frequency detection and tracking platform, designed to detect a hostile drone, cue an interceptor and guide it to the kill — a full sensor-to-effector chain in a box.

The company says each interceptor costs less than $580 (€500) and is built to chase targets at speeds up to 310 mph (500 km/h).

Although Sensofusion boasts some of the highest production numbers on the market, it’s not the first company to market the concept of a portable all-in-one drone production hub.

Firestorm Labs' xCell system, the most tested U.S. equivalent to Sensofusion, uses two containers and works at a significantly slower pace by producing roughly 50 drones per month. Its newly announced SQUALL airframe is the first drone purpose-built to come off a mobile factory line, according to the company.

Founded in 2022, Firestorm’s biggest selling point is its testing and validation. The company holds a $100 million U.S. Air Force contract, has run field exercises with Air Force Special Operations Command and the Air National Guard and raised $47 million in Series A funding.

Per Se Systems, a French firm, operates in a middle ground by building micro drone factories on trailers — instead of shipping containers — that produce up to ten drones per hour on a generator with 19 hours of autonomous operation.

Per Se has been field-tested with 12 French Army regiments and is embedded in four active development projects with the French military, according to Army Recognition.

The drawbacks of production containers

Some logistics and strategy specialists say the all-in-one package wrapped into the portable factory concept ignores some critical battlefield questions that could render the projects useless.

A container full of printers, raw materials, sensitive electronics and proprietary design files concentrates exactly the kind of capability an adversary would want to destroy or capture, according to a Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis that identified several strategic vulnerabilities in frontline drone production.

And the problems compound from there.

Airframes can be printed, but the motors, batteries, electronic speed controllers, radios and sensors that make a drone combat-capable cannot, and those components must be trucked to the container through the same supply chains the factory is supposed to bypass.

Quality control under field conditions remains untested. Vibration, temperature swings, dust and intermittent power degrade the dimensional tolerances that 3D-printed parts require, and no company has demonstrated sustained production outside a controlled environment.

“Industrial resilience is combat power,” the CSIS experts concluded. “The next war will not be won by who initially fields the most drones, but by who sustains building them at scale.”

Several countries are catching on to the growing need to invest in drone production logistics.

Five NATO nations — the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Poland — launched a joint initiative in February to develop affordable interceptor drones within a year under a program called LEAP, explicitly drawing on Ukrainian battlefield know-how to do it.

Ukraine’s experts say they are ready and willing to share their hard-earned lessons with allies, including the strategies to build a new layer of defense alongside the new weapons themselves.

“What Ukraine has built is a deep operational ecosystem across multiple domains, designed for conflicts where entirely new types of threats appear,” Brave1’s Moroz said.

“And ecosystems like this are extremely hard to copy,” he explained. “Even investing hundreds of billions or a trillion today would not easily replicate the experience, integration, and speed of iteration built over years of real combat.”

His final words of advice to allies?

“Drones are the tool. The infrastructure is the weapon.”

Citing multiple U.S. officials, the Post report suggested ground operations could involve both conventional infantry and special operations elements, but would not yet rise to the level of a full-scale invasion.

Decisions on whether or not to green light operations, which would put U.S. troops at substantially more risk to Iranian threats, now rest with President Donald Trump.

“It’s the job of the Pentagon to make preparations in order to give the commander in chief maximum optionality,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement provided to Military Times. “It does not mean the president has made a decision.”

The Post’s report comes as U.S. military assets continue to flood the region. On Friday, U.S. Marines and sailors assigned to the Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group arrived in U.S. Central Command waters.

The group, which is led by the America-class amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli and includes the embarked 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, departed earlier this month from its homeport of Sasebo, Japan.

The Pentagon has also confirmed elements from the 82nd Airborne Division headquarters and a brigade combat team are slated to deploy to the Middle East. Based out of Fort Bragg, North Carolina, the 82nd acts as the Army’s rapid-response force and is often among the first units sent to respond to emerging crises.

The report also comes on the heels of an Iranian missile and drone attack on Friday that injured a dozen U.S. service members at Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia. Two of the 12 injuries are considered to be serious.

The strike also reportedly damaged multiple U.S. aircraft, including an E-3 Sentry AWACS and multiple KC-135 tankers.

Thirteen service members have been killed in action and nearly 300 wounded during Operation Epic Fury, a joint undertaking by U.S. and Israeli militaries against the Islamic Republic that began on Feb. 28.

The majority of the wounded have since returned to duty, according to U.S. Central Command.

Prior to Friday’s attack, 10 U.S. troops remained in serious condition.

A dozen U.S. service members were wounded Friday in an Iranian missile strike on Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia, the Wall Street Journal first reported.

Two of the 12 personnel, all of whom were reportedly inside an installation building at the time of the attack, are in serious condition.

Attempts to contact U.S. Central Command had not been returned as of publication.

Friday’s strike, which reportedly damaged multiple U.S. refueling aircraft and involved Iranian drones as well, comes as the U.S. military continues to pour assets into the region.

The Pentagon on Wednesday confirmed elements from the 82nd Airborne Division headquarters and a brigade combat team are slated to deploy to the Middle East.

The 82nd, based out of Fort Bragg, North Carolina, acts as the Army’s rapid-response force and is often among the first units sent to respond to emerging crises.

U.S. Marines and sailors with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, which includes up to 5,000 personnel and several warships, are also reportedly heading toward the Middle East after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth approved a request from CENTCOM to help curtail Iran’s regional attacks.

The 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, part of the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group, has also been rumored to serve as a potential reinforcement. The group deployed in recent weeks and is currently operating in the U.S. 3rd Fleet area of operations in the eastern Pacific.

Marines and sailors with the 11th MEU carried out a large-scale amphibious assault exercise on March 2 aboard Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California, prior to steaming toward open water.

Thirteen service members have been killed in action and nearly 300 wounded during Operation Epic Fury, a joint undertaking by U.S. and Israeli militaries against the Islamic Republic that began on Feb. 28.

The majority of the wounded have since returned to duty, according to U.S. Central Command.

Prior to Friday’s attack, 10 U.S. troops remained in serious condition.

Military Times reporters Eve Sampson and Riley Ceder contributed to this report.

The deployment of the vessels — which can be used for surveillance or kamikaze strikes — has not been previously reported. It comes despite a series of setbacks in the U.S. Navy’s years‑long effort to field a fleet of uncrewed surface vessels, Reuters reported last year.

Uncrewed vessels have risen to prominence in recent years after Ukraine used explosive‑laden speedboats to inflict significant damage on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

Iran has used sea drones to attack oil tankers in the Gulf at least twice since the U.S. and Israel began strikes nearly a month ago. There was no indication the U.S. had used uncrewed vessels for offensive strikes.

In response to Reuters’ questions, Tim Hawkins, a Pentagon spokesperson for Central Command, said unmanned vessels built by Maryland-based BlackSea, known as the Global Autonomous Reconnaissance Craft, or GARC, had been used for patrols as part of the U.S. campaign against Iran, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury.”

“U.S. forces continue to employ unmanned systems in the Middle East region, including surface drone assets like the GARC. This platform, in particular, has successfully logged over 450 underway hours and more than 2,200 nautical miles during maritime patrols in support of Operation Epic Fury,” Hawkins said in a statement.

Hawkins declined to name any of the other unmanned systems being deployed. BlackSea declined to comment for this story.

Navy struggles with drone boats

The U.S. has for years been trying to build a fleet of autonomous uncrewed surface and underwater vessels, as a cheaper and faster alternative to manned ships and submarines, particularly to counter China’s growing naval power in the Pacific. The effort, however, has fallen behind schedule and been dogged by technical problems, cost concerns and a series of testing setbacks.

Last year, Reuters reported the GARC, an angular speedboat about five meters long, was involved in multiple performance and safety issues, including one where it collided with another boat at speed during a military test.

In recent weeks, during another failed test in the Middle East, one GARC boat became inoperable, according to a source who was briefed on the matter.

Hawkins declined to comment on the testing setbacks.

“The GARC is an emerging capability and part of a fleet of surface drones operated by U.S. 5th Fleet to enhance awareness of what’s happening in regional waters,” he said.

“The sailor has been transported ashore for additional medical care and remains in stable condition,” according to a U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/U.S. Fifth Fleet post on X.

The injury was not life threatening, the service stated. The circumstances of the incident are under investigation.

The carrier remains deployed as a part of Operation Epic Fury, conducting strike missions on Iran.

USS Gerald R. Ford docks in Greece for port call after fire

The USS Abraham Lincoln departed Naval Base San Diego, California, on Nov. 21, 2025, for an Indo-Pacific deployment but was rerouted to the Middle East as tension between Iran and the U.S. mounted in the weeks leading up to the Iran war.

The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group arrived in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility in January, along with Carrier Air Wing 9 and destroyers USS Frank E. Petersen, Jr., USS Spruance and USS Michael Murphy.

Nearly 300 troops have been injured so far during Operation Epic Fury, which began on Feb. 28 when the U.S. military launched strikes against Iran, killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Ten U.S. service members remain seriously wounded, while 255 have returned to duty.

Thirteen U.S. service members have been killed in action during the war.

The Pentagon was unable to determine the operational effectiveness or suitability of Independence-class littoral combat ships equipped with the mine countermeasures mission package due to insufficient data on its mine-hunting and mine-destroying technology, according to the Office of the Director, Operational Test & Evaluation’s fiscal 2025 annual report.

Several retired U.S. Navy captains who deployed on minesweepers and defense analysts also told Military Times that the LCS with the MCM mission package, which replaced four Avenger-class mine countermeasures ships in 2025, is not as effective as its predecessor due to a myriad of technological constraints and malfunctions.

“The Navy has not provided sufficient data from operational employment of [Airborne Mine Neutralization System] and [Airborne Laser Mine Detection System] to determine operational effectiveness of the Independence variant with MCM MP,” the March 13 DOT&E report stated.

Both of these counter-mine systems are deployed by MH-60S helicopters, which are attached to the littoral combat ship. They identify and destroys mines through sonar, lasers and deployed unmanned underwater vehicles.

The systems “demonstrated low reliability prior to fleet release,” according to a classified 2016 DOT&E report, the March 13 report said.

“The AMNS cannot neutralize most of the mines in the Navy’s threat scenarios,” a public version of the 2016 report said.

The 2025 DOT&E report also stated that the Unmanned Influence Sweep System, which is employed onboard the LCS and uses an unmanned surface vehicle to sweep mines with acoustic and electromagnetic generators, was “not operationally suitable.”

It cited a previous 2022 DOT&E report that said the system’s operational availability was 29%, “well below the Navy-defined minimum threshold,” and did “not support sustained mine sweeping operations.”

Despite ongoing concerns with the technology, the Navy declared the MCM mission package and AN/AQS-20 Sonar Mine Detection Sets operationally capable in 2023.

The Navy conducted no additional operational tests of the LCS with the MCM mission package in fiscal 2025, according to DOT&E’s report.

The service did not return Military Times’ request for comment by the time of this story’s publication.

An unproven system

“I’m a pessimist when it comes to our ability to deal with the mine warfare threat,” said retired Capt. Anthony Cowden.

Cowden spent one year assigned to a minesweeper during his 37-year career as a commissioned naval officer and said he didn’t believe that the LCS with the MCM mission package could prove as effective as the Avenger-class mine countermeasures ship.

The fact that it has never been proven in combat is a major concern for Cowden.

“The question is, it can reach [initial operation capability], but if it can only sweep 10% as effectively as the old capability, that doesn’t mean you’re not at IOC, it just means you’ve got a real problem,” Cowden said.

The Navy still has four Avenger-class mine countermeasures ships stationed in Sasebo, Japan, but decommissioned the four that were homeported in Bahrain in 2025 — USS Devastator, USS Dextrous, USS Gladiator and USS Sentry — each of which served for over 30 years.

The minesweepers have a proven track record of identifying and destroying naval mines, using their sonar, tethered remote operating systems and influence technology to sweep over 1,000 mines off the coast of Kuwait during the Gulf War.

The US Navy decommissioned Middle East minesweepers last year. Here’s what they did.

Three littoral combat ships with the MCM mission package arrived in the Middle East in 2025, including the USS Canberra, USS Santa Barbara and USS Tulsa.

The Canberra was stationed in the Indian Ocean as of March 16, and the Santa Barbara and Tulsa were conducting a port call in Singapore as of Thursday.

Minesweepers are made of wood and encased in fiberglass, which allows them to operate inside and near a mine-threat zone. The LCS with the MCM mission package, however, is made of aluminum and must sit outside the mine zone as it deploys helicopters and unmanned underwater and surface vehicles to mine hunt and minesweep.

This standoff distance, coupled with the littoral combat ship’s reliance on unproven autonomous systems to hunt and sweep mines, worries Cowden.

Capt. Sam Howard, who commanded the USS Raven minesweeper during his time in the Navy, said the point of the new MCM mission package was to keep service members outside of the mine field and protect them from danger.

But that doesn’t mean its efficacy rivals that of the Avenger-class minesweeper.

“They don’t have the endurance, nor has the automation arrived at the level of effectiveness that having manned systems historically has had,” Howard said.

A host of potential problems

Compared to its predecessor, the LCS with the MCM mission package has limited range.

The LCS mothership has to maintain line of sight with the unmanned surface vehicle or vessel it deploys to minesweep, which means its radius of operability is limited, since the LCS must remain outside the mine zone.

There has also been a host of other problems for the ship, which began its initial testing and evaluation in the fall of 2022 aboard the USS Cincinnati.

Ethan Connell, assistant director for George Mason University’s Taiwan Security Monitor, has written about America’s weaknesses when it comes to dealing with mine warfare for the Center of Maritime Strategy, a U.S. think tank focusing on national security in the sea domain.

He said that the MCM technology tasked with detecting mines had issues doing just that when it conducted testing off the coast of Southern California with clear water and no visibility hinderances.

The systems both detected more mines and less mines than were actually there, he said. The operability tests used threat-representative mine surrogates, which are devices meant to simulate mines.

If the ship was making these mistakes during ideal testing conditions, how would it fare in the murky waters of the Strait of Hormuz, he posited. The 2016 DTO&E report determined mine-hunting capabilities are limited in “other-than-benign environmental conditions.”

Further, the LCS with the MCM mission package has previously reported single points of failure, including: the platform lift that helps move the unmanned underwater vehicle from the mission bay to the hangar bay; the crane that places unmanned surface vehicles into the water; and the tow hook on the unmanned surface vehicles.

“There’s no backup,” Connell said.

If one of these elements were to go awry, the whole MCM mission package could not function, according to Connell, especially since sailors aboard the ship likely wouldn’t be able to fix the machinery and would need assistance from the manufacturer.

“Maintainers demonstrated limited capability to repair the [Unmanned Influence Sweep System] due to deficiencies in maintainer documentation for operational-level repairs and additional repairs that required subject matter expert intervention,” a nonpublic fiscal 2021 DOT&E report said, according to Breaking Defense.

These issues elongate the preparation time needed to deploy the autonomous aspects of the MCM mission package, Connell said. It takes four hours of premission maintenance followed by roughly 90 minutes to calibrate GPS and sonar to ensure the type of accuracy needed for MCM operations.

That’s nearly six hours that needs to be baked into planning before the mission can even begin.

“When you have a system where everything needs to be perfect in order for it to work, obviously, that is a really bad thing,” Connell said.

Even sailors tasked with the development of the technology have been candid about its status as a viable piece of technology.

Capt. Scott Hattaway, director of the Naval Surface and Mine Warfighting Development Center’s Mine Countermeasures Technical Division, hinted at its potential shortcomings in 2025.

“I’m not saying we got it right, I’m saying we’re first out of the gate,” Hattaway told Naval News.

The mine threat

The naval mine threat in the Middle East has long been noted.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy views the maritime weapon as a key tenet of its military doctrine, according to a 2017 Office of Naval Intelligence report.

Iran reportedly began laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz as of March 11 and the country’s military possesses nearly 6,000 mines in its weapons stockpile, a recent report from Congress said.

Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, said March 16 that U.S. forces destroyed storage bunkers for naval mines during a March 13 U.S. strike on military targets on Iran’s oil export hub, Kharg Island.

U.S. forces destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers on March 10, according to CENTCOM.

And as of Monday, the U.S. has damaged or destroyed over 140 Iranian vessels, according to a CENTCOM fact sheet.

But Iran’s military still has ways to lay mines, according to Seth Jones, president of the defense and security department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank specializing in national security.

“The Iranians don’t have a lot of major capabilities for mine laying, but what they do have is hundreds of ships that are capable of laying two to three mines a piece, in addition to some subsurface vessels,” Jones said.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine said Thursday during a Pentagon briefing that A-10 Warthogs were targeting Iran’s fast-attack watercraft in the Strait of Hormuz.

If Iran proves able to use these means to deploy mines in the sea passage, Jones said the U.S. military could potentially face challenges with its current MCM capabilities in the region, including the LCS.

If the naval mine warfare threat comes to fruition in the sea passage, the U.S. military will likely need to forward deploy its four Avenger-class mine countermeasures ships from Japan to the Middle East or ask U.S. allies with their own counter-mine capabilities for assistance, according to Jones.

The possibility of success

Others who spoke with Military Times weren’t so quick to deride the LCS with the MCM mission package.

Retired Capt. Mike Sparks, a former minesweeper commander who operated in the Persian Gulf aboard the USS Dextrous, understood the reticence to embrace the new technology.

During his time in the Middle East, in the early 2000s, there were concerns as to whether or not the minesweeper’s efforts would be successful, he said, but he and other sailors proved the ship could do its job effectively. He sees this as a sign that the LCS could do the same.

“The systems that I operated in the rivers of Iraq, were not intended to be used in the rivers of Iraq,” Sparks said.

As the Navy began rolling out the MCM mission package, his belief in the system was low and his criticism high. But his skepticism has since morphed to embrace the technology as it has advanced.

“The things that we have out there now I believe have a great deal of capability and optimally they will function as they have been designed,” Sparks said. “I expect the technology they have out there is going to succeed.”

The global price of oil continues to skyrocket as Iran’s missiles and drones hit vital infrastructure in Arab Gulf states. Billion-dollar American radar systems have also been targeted and destroyed across the Middle East by Iran, seemingly degrading U.S. defenses.

U.S. military presence near Iran includes dozens of locations and tens of thousands of troops in harm’s way. This raises the question: If a missile is launched from Iran toward a U.S. military base in the region, how do service members know in time to stay safe?

The United States and its allies have built a layered system to watch the skies day and night. This system uses satellites in space, radar on the ground, ships at sea and aircraft in the air. It also depends on well-trained military members from U.S. Space Command who make quick decisions with the data. As a former U.S. Air Force officer and now aerospace and national security law professor at the University of Mississippi, I’ve studied the vast network of alliances and systems that make this happen.

Patriot air defense interception is costly: Here’s how it works

Together, these tools form a missile defense network that can spot danger early and give warnings. The fastest way to spot a missile is from space. U.S. satellites, like the U.S. Space Force’s Space-Based Infrared System, circle high above Earth. These billion-dollar satellites, the crown jewels of missile defense, can spot the bright heat from a missile launch almost instantly.

When a missile is fired, it creates a strong enough heat signal to be seen in space. The satellites detect this heat using sensitive, infrared sensors and send an alert within seconds. This early warning is critical. It gives the military on the ground or at sea time to get defense systems ready.

The warning signal from space is then received on the ground by systems known as the U.S. Space Force’s Joint Tactical Ground Stations. The signal is sent from space using secure satellite communications, received by these ground stations and then quickly distributed to other parts of the missile defense network.

Radar to detect and track missiles

But satellites cannot do everything to detect and track missiles. They need help from systems on Earth. After a missile is launched, ground-based radars take over from the initial satellite signal. Radars work by sending out radio waves. When those waves hit an object, like a missile, they bounce back. The radar then uses that information to track where the object is and where it is going throughout its flight.

The U.S. uses both short and long-range radars together. One powerful, long-range radar is the AN/FPS-132 Upgraded Early Warning Radar. It can see missiles from over 3,000 miles (4,828 kilometers) away and track them as they travel. Another key system is the U.S. Army’s AN/TPY-2 Surveillance Transportable Radar. This radar has a range of almost 2,000 miles (3,219 kilometers) and looks more closely at the missile to provide more information about the threat. TPY-2 systems typically sit right next to weapons systems that will destroy the missile to ensure the timely relay of tracking data.

In sum, satellites spot the launch and radars follow the missile through the sky until defense systems destroy it.

However, Iranian forces recently struck both a TPY-2 in Jordan and a FPS-132 in Qatar. These systems are expensive and difficult to quickly replace. This has required the U.S. to move an additional TPY-2 from Korea to place it in the Middle East.

U.S. missile defense tracking was certainly degraded by losing these resources, but other radars are still part of the network. For example, the U.S. Space Force operates another FPS-132 in the U.K., which could potentially provide radar support to the Middle East.

In addition to ground and space-based sensors, U.S. Navy ships carry powerful radar systems as part of their Aegis Combat System, known as the AN/SPY-1, which can provide up to 200 miles (322 kilometers) of coverage. Ships can sail closer to areas where threats may come from and help fill gaps that land-based radars cannot cover.

U.S. Air Force aircraft also play a big role. Planes like the E-3 Sentry can watch large areas using radar from the sky. Drones such as the MQ-9 Reaper can stay in the air for long periods and track activity below with radar and sensors. These moving sensors help the system stay flexible. If one area needs more coverage or is degraded, ships and aircraft can move there to fill in.

Why drones are harder to catch

Drones require a different set of tracking tools and have proven more difficult to destroy than missiles from Iran. The legacy systems are simply better suited to missiles than new drone technology. To detect drones, the U.S. typically uses several tools: radar; radio signal tracking, which can pick up control signals; and cameras and other sensors, which can see drones directly.

Missiles are fast and hot, which makes them easier to detect with the current systems. Iranian drones, such as the Shahed system, are different. Their heat signature is often minimal due to using gas-powered engines not easily detected by infrared sensors. Without this heat signature, that initial warning cue is delayed, making it difficult for radar to know what to track.

Drones are usually smaller and fly low to the ground, making them hard to see on radar. They can be hidden by buildings or tough to distinguish from birds and other objects. Some are made of materials that do not show up well on radar, such as fiberglass and plastic. Others move slowly, which can make them harder to notice or stand out.

Many of Iran’s drones do not show up on radio signal detection systems because they cannot be remotely controlled. These drones are programmed with GPS coordinates and navigate themselves to a target.

Multiple methods

No single method works all the time to defend against drone attacks. Instead, these tools work together to find and track drones. The U.S. and its allies continue to improve their systems to catch both missiles and drones. For example, the U.S. is in discussions to buy acoustics sensors from Ukraine, which can hear drones coming when they cannot be seen using other methods.

New sensors, better software and faster communication will all help strengthen defenses. The goal is simple: Detect threats earlier, respond faster and hit the target faster.

Aaron Brynildson is a law instructor at the University of Mississippi.

Both Bahrain and Washington have blamed an Iranian drone attack for the March 9 blast, which the Gulf kingdom said injured 32 people including children, some seriously. Commenting on the day of the attack, U.S. Central Command said on X that an Iranian drone struck a residential neighborhood in Bahrain.

In response to questions from Reuters, Bahrain on Saturday acknowledged for the first time that a Patriot missile was involved in the explosion over the Mahazza neighborhood on Sitra island, offshore from the capital Manama and also home to an oil refinery.

In a statement, a Bahraini government spokesperson said the missile successfully intercepted an Iranian drone mid-air, saving lives.

“The damage and injuries sustained were not a result of a direct impact to the ground of either the Patriot interceptor or the Iranian drone,” the spokesperson said.

Neither Bahrain or Washington has provided evidence that an Iranian drone was involved in the Mahazza incident.

The use of costly, advanced weaponry to defend against attacks by far cheaper drones has been a defining feature of the war. The incident points to the risks and limitations of this strategy: The blast from the powerful Patriot, whether or not it intercepted a drone, contributed to widespread damage and casualties, while Bahrain’s air defenses were unable to prevent strikes that night on the nearby oil refinery, which declared force majeure hours later.

When asked for comment, the Pentagon referred Reuters to Central Command, which did not immediately reply to questions.

In response to questions sent to the White House, a senior U.S. official said the United States was “crushing” Iran’s ability to shoot or produce drones and missiles. “We will continue to address these threats to our country and our allies,” the official said, adding that the U.S. military “never targets civilians.” The official did not answer specific questions about the Patriot attack.

On February 28, the first day of U.S. strikes on Iran, an Iranian girls school took a direct hit. Investigators at the U.S. Defense Department believe U.S. forces were likely responsible, Reuters first reported, possibly because of outdated targeting data, two U.S. sources previously told the news agency.

Video of the aftermath of the Mahazza blast in Bahrain verified by Reuters shows rubble around houses, a thick layer of dust in the streets, an injured man and screaming residents.

Both Bahrain and the United States operate U.S. Patriot air defense batteries in the kingdom, a close U.S. ally located on the Persian Gulf that hosts the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet along with the regional U.S. naval command.

Bahrain plays a critical role in the security of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas and has been almost entirely closed by Iran, causing unprecedented disruption to world oil supplies.

On the night of the explosion in Mahazza, the refinery on Sitra came under Iranian attack, according to Bahraini national oil company Bapco. Videos show smoke rising from the facility on the morning of March 9.

Reuters could not establish whether the cause of the explosion during a night of Iranian attacks on Sitra would have been immediately apparent to U.S. and Bahraini forces. Bahrain in its statement did not say why it had not mentioned the involvement of a Patriot at the time. Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the incident.

Produced by Raytheon, part of RTX Corp. [RTX], the Patriot is the U.S. Army’s primary high-to-medium-range aircraft-and-missile interceptor system and forms the backbone of U.S. and allied air defenses. Raytheon didn’t respond to a request for comment about the incident.

Bahrain’s government declined to say whether the missile that detonated on March 9, was fired by its own forces or by the United States.

But research associates Sam Lair and Michael Duitsman and Professor Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey concluded with moderate-to-high confidence that the suspect missile was likely launched from a U.S. Patriot battery located about 4 miles (7 km) to the southwest of the Mahazza neighborhood.

The conclusions of the three American munitions and open-source intelligence researchers, reported here for the first time, were based on their review of open-source visuals and commercial satellite imagery.

Reuters showed the Middlebury analysis to two target-analysis experts and one Patriot system missile researcher, who found no reason to dispute its conclusion.

One of them, Wes Bryant, a former senior targeting advisor and policy analyst at the Pentagon, said Lair, Duitsman and Lewis’s conclusions were “pretty undeniable.”

Key to the Middlebury analysis was a video shot from an apartment building and shared on social media. The video shows the suspect Patriot roaring across the night sky at low altitude on a northeastern trajectory. It then angled downward and out of sight. A flash of light in the distance appeared to mark its detonation 1.3 seconds later.

Hany Farid, a professor at the University of California at Berkeley specializing in digital forensics, reviewed the video for Reuters to determine if it was generated by artificial intelligence. He found “no obvious evidence that the video is fake.”

Lair, Duitsman and Lewis geolocated the video to a neighborhood in Riffa, Bahrain’s second-largest city. Reuters confirmed the geolocation. The earliest post of the video Reuters could find online was at around 2 am local time on March 9.

“The Riffa site’s location and orientation are consistent with the trajectory” of that of the suspect Patriot, the analysis said.

Multiple videos posted to social media the morning of March 9 show damage to residences in Block 602 of the Mahazza neighborhood. The researchers first geolocated the visuals using landmarks that appeared to match commercial satellite imagery of the area and visible street addresses. Reuters independently verified the geolocation.

The researchers then traced the trajectory of the suspect missile from Block 602 straight back to what they assessed – based on commercial satellite imagery – was the U.S. Patriot battery based less than half a mile from where the video of the missile in flight was recorded in Riffa.

A battery consists of a radar unit, a command hub and up to eight launchers that are integrated to detect, track and intercept aircraft and missiles.

Using commercial satellite imagery, the researchers determined that five launchers were visible at the Riffa site two days before the March 9 incident.

The battery has been there since at least 2009, according to satellite imagery. The Bahraini Defense Force did not start operating its own Patriot systems until 2024, according to a Lockheed Martin press release.

The Riffa site has features that are both distinctive to U.S. Patriot batteries in the region and different from those of known Bahrain-operated batteries, the researchers said, including protective walls, unpaved roads and a lack of permanent buildings. Based on these elements, the researchers concluded that the battery is likely operated by the United States, which uses Patriots to defend its naval sites in Bahrain.

The researchers were unable to say with confidence what caused the Patriot to explode. But they added that based on the available evidence, including the pattern and spread of damage on the ground, it appeared to have detonated mid-flight.

They concluded that it was possible the Patriot was aimed at a low-flying drone and that the combined explosion of the missile and drone ignited the blast, the analysis said.

“If this was the case, this was an irresponsible intercept attempt as it endangered the lives and the homes of allied civilians in a residential area,” the analysis said

This scenario matches what Bahrain’s government spokesperson said happened: that the Patriot intercepted an Iranian drone and both detonated in the air.

However, the analysis said, the direction of the damage and the lack of available evidence of a drone over the neighborhood suggested another scenario, that “the explosion was the result of the detonation of the warhead and unexpended propellant of a Patriot interceptor.”

Despite the claim by Bahrain, the researchers said it was less likely the missile made contact with a drone. Reuters could not independently verify the presence or not of an Iranian drone during the incident.

The analysis said that videos taken after the attack and photographs released by Bahrani authorities show that the blast damage was concentrated along four streets of Mahazza.

A Bahrain television news broadcast on March 9 and a government press release showed an extensively damaged home about 400 feet (120 meters) from the center of the main blast area, with interior photos showing holes in a wall created by shrapnel, the analysis said.

When all the damage is considered together, the Middlebury analysis noted, it matches what one would expect if a Patriot missile exploded in the air over a road intersection in the neighborhood. Pieces of the missile then flew about 120 meters farther and hit another house, the analysis said.

Robert Maher, an audio specialist who reviewed the video at the request of Reuters, said his analysis supports the approximate location of the explosion over the damaged homes.

In the video, a flash is seen about eight seconds in, but an explosion is never heard before the clip ends 19 seconds later. That’s because light travels faster than sound. Based on how long the sound would take to reach the person who shot the video, the explosion had to be more than four miles away. The damaged homes were about 4.6 miles (7.4 km) away, which fits with the timing.

Maher said that in the audio from the video he heard no drones or other missiles, although their sounds would have been faint or inaudible if they were more than four miles away from where the video was taken.

“I don’t see anything that is inconsistent with my observations from the audio,” Maher said after reviewing the Middlebury analysis.

Defense and industry officials say Patriot misfires are rare, but they do happen, including an errant missile in 2007 that hit a farm in Qatar.

In an X post on March 9, U.S. Central Command denounced Iranian and Russian news reports that said the incident in Mahazza was the result of a failed Patriot, calling it a “LIE.” It said an Iranian drone struck a residential neighborhood.

Reuters and the Middlebury researchers were unable to obtain or review any visual evidence of missile or drone fragments. Reuters attempted to contact witnesses in Bahrain, but several people declined to speak, citing fear of reprisals. Human Rights Watch has documented arrests of people in Bahrain during the war for posting videos on social media of attacks.

In the video of the suspect missile in flight, the Patriot appears to pass a much steeper smoke trail that the researchers said likely belonged to a first interceptor fired moments earlier.

Patriots are often fired in pairs to increase the chances that one hits the target. Neither the researchers or Reuters could establish what happened to the first missile.

The low trajectory of the second missile and its deviation from the route of the earlier launch could be signs of a possible problem, the researchers said. But they could not rule out the possibility that it was shot in that direction on purpose.

Bahrain’s spokesperson said any suggestion of malfunction or misfiring of the Patriots in Bahrain “was factually incorrect.”

The deployments of the USS Boxer, along with its 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit and accompanying warship, comes as Reuters reported that President Donald Trump’s administration was considering deploying thousands of U.S. troops to reinforce its operation in the Middle East.

Trump told reporters on Thursday that he was not putting troops “anywhere,” but that if was going to, he would not tell journalists.

The sources, who were speaking on the condition of anonymity, did not say what the role of the additional troops would be.

But one of the officials said the troops were departing the West Coast of the United States about 3 weeks ahead of schedule.

The White House and Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The deployments could help provide Trump with additional options as he weighs expanding U.S. operations, with the Iran war well into its third week.

Those options include securing safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a mission that would be accomplished primarily through air and naval forces, the sources said. But securing the Strait could also mean deploying U.S. troops to Iran’s shoreline, said four sources, including two U.S. officials.

Reuters granted the sources anonymity to speak about military planning.

The Trump administration has also discussed options to send ground forces to Iran’s Kharg Island, the hub for 90% of Iran’s ​oil exports, the three people familiar with the matter and three U.S. officials said. One of the officials said such an operation would be very risky. Iran has the ability to reach the island with missiles and drones.

The United States carried out strikes against military targets on the island on March 13 and Trump has threatened to also strike its critical oil infrastructure. However, given its vital role in Iran’s economy, controlling the island would likely be viewed as a better option than destroying it, military experts say.

Any use of U.S. ground troops — even for a limited mission — could pose significant political risks for Trump, given low support among the American public for the Iran campaign and Trump’s own campaign promises to avoid entangling the U.S. in new Middle East conflicts.

Trump administration officials have also discussed the possibility of deploying U.S. forces to secure Iran’s stocks of highly enriched uranium, one of the people familiar with the matter said.

The sources did not believe a deployment of ground forces anywhere in Iran was imminent but declined to discuss specifics of U.S. operational planning. Experts say the task of securing Iran’s uranium stockpiles would be highly complex and risky, even for U.S. special operations forces.

A White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: “There has been no decision to send ground troops at this time, but President Trump wisely keeps all options at his disposal.

“The president is focused on achieving all of the defined objectives of Operation Epic Fury: destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capacity, annihilate their navy, ensure their terrorist proxies cannot destabilize the region, and guarantee that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon.”

The Pentagon declined to comment.

The discussions come as the U.S. military continues to attack Iran’s navy, its missile and drone stockpiles and its defense industry.

The U.S. has carried out more than 7,800 strikes since launching the war on Feb. 28 and damaged or destroyed more than 120 Iranian vessels so far, according to a factsheet released on Wednesday by the U.S. Central Command, which oversees the roughly 50,000 U.S. troops in the Middle East.

US casualties

Trump has said his goals go beyond degrading Iran’s military capabilities and could include securing safe passage through the strait and preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.

Ground forces could help broaden his options to address those goals, but carry significant risk. Even without any direct conflict in Iran, 13 U.S. troops have been killed so far in the war and about 200 have been wounded, although the vast majority of the injuries have been minor, the U.S. military says.

For years, Trump has railed against his predecessors for getting involved in conflicts and has vowed to keep the United States out of foreign wars. But more recently he has refused to rule out the possibility of “boots on the ground” in Iran.

A senior White House official told Reuters that Trump has various options for acquiring Iran’s nuclear material but has not decided how to proceed. “Certainly there are ways in which it could be acquired,” the official said, adding: “He hasn’t made a decision yet.”

In written testimony to lawmakers on Wednesday, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said Iran’s nuclear enrichment program had been obliterated by strikes in June and the entrances to those underground facilities had been “buried and shuttered with cement.”

The sources said the discussions on U.S. reinforcements go beyond the arrival of an Amphibious Ready Group next week in the Middle East, with an attached Marine Expeditionary Unit that includes more than 2,000 Marines.

But one of the sources noted that the U.S. military was losing a significant number of forces with the decision to send the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier to Greece for maintenance after a fire on board the vessel.

Trump has also oscillated on whether the U.S. should secure the Strait of Hormuz.

After initially saying the U.S. Navy could escort vessels, he called on other countries to help open the key water way. With little interest from allies, Trump on Wednesday mused about simply leaving.

“I wonder what would happen if we ‘finished off’ what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called ‘Strait?,’” Trump posted on Truth Social.

(Reporting by Phil Stewart, Idrees Ali, Erin Banco and Gram Slattery; additional reporting by Steve Holland; Editing by Don Durfee and Rosalba O’Brien)