In the last four years, Pentagon leaders have often described their efforts in Asia with a Woody Allen quote:
“A key part of success is just showing up.”
They have numbers to back it up. When Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin heads to the Indo-Pacific on Friday, he will be on his 11th trip to the strategically vital region — the second-most of any secretary this century.
But the trip will also test the endurance of that presence.
President Joe Biden’s decision not to run for reelection has scrambled the 2024 race, making it harder for America’s allies to predict who they will be working with come January. It also marks a new era for officials in the Pentagon, who are trying to secure their work with partners around the region.
Nowhere is this more true than in Japan and the Philippines, where Austin will join Secretary of State Antony Blinken for a week of meetings. These two countries are part of a renaissance in Indo-Pacific security, in which states are hedging against Beijing and working with each other more often.
The summit is about making this progress last, multiple analysts said, even if America’s next president remains uncertain.
Much of American’s success in shoring up its network of Indo-Pacific allies comes down to a rare alignment of America-friendly leaders in the region and a focused White House, said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who focuses on U.S. strategy in Asia.
“They want to take as much advantage of that [alignment] as possible,” Cooper said.
10 days
In a briefing just before the trip, senior defense officials outlined the meetings planned for the next two weeks and what they hope to get out of them.
“We’re about to kick off the 10 most consequential days for U.S. defense ties in the Indo-Pacific since the start of the administration,” a senior Pentagon official said.
Austin will meet with his Japanese and Philippine counterparts, along with those from India and Australia — some one-on-one and some in groups. In addition, defense officials from Japan, South Korea and the U.S. will meet in Tokyo. It’s the first time such a forum has occurred in either Japan or South Korea, which until recently were feuding over the legacy of Japan’s colonial rule on the Korean Peninsula.
In those meetings, the Pentagon plans to announce a variety of new ways that each military will work together.
Japan is doubling its defense budget and growing the narrow role of its Self Defense Forces. As Tokyo’s military prepares to take on larger roles, the U.S. is restructuring its command in Japan so that the two can coordinate better.
The two countries will agree to build or repair more weapons together, including planes, ships and missiles — particularly those for Patriot, an air defense system that has proven crucial to Ukraine’s self-defense.
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And lastly, the U.S. and Japan will discuss military operations in the southwest Japanese islands, where Tokyo is permanently basing soldiers for the first time. The U.S. would like to eventually send troops of its own there as it tries to spread its forces around the region, but such efforts have been met with local reluctance.
In the Philippines, the U.S. will announce $500 million in long-term security aid, meant to help Manila defend against China in the South China Sea. The two countries will also agree on a “road map” of military spending over the next five to 10 years, work on a plan to securely share information and discuss new military sites where the U.S. can operate.
Institutionalizing
While addressing logistical issues involving basing and partnerships, Austin’s trip will also seek to buttress the work America has done in Asia over the last four years, according to Victor Cha, a former Asia official for the National Security Council during the George W. Bush presidency.
“What the administration has been good at is to try to institutionalize these things so they can outlast this administration,” Cha said.
Much of that work, he said, has involved gathering together small groups of countries in the region. Another defense official speaking before the trip said to expect even more of that, with the U.S. seeking to set a tempo for how often these countries — such as Japan and South Korea — will meet.
The first official argued that, while U.S. policy on China is not uniform, it has become much more bipartisan on Capitol Hill as the threat from Beijing becomes clearer.
If there’s one area that the Donald Trump and Biden administrations have mostly agreed on, it’s been a strong stance against Beijing. Trump was close to the leaders of Japan and Australia, and helped push the increased China focus.
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It’s not clear whether future leaders in the region will show the same patience — particularly in Japan, where former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe famously never responded when criticized by Trump.
But the forces motivating their cooperation aren’t likely to change. China has become more aggressive around the Philippines and Taiwan. And North Korea continues to develop nuclear weapons, spooking Japan and South Korea.
On the eve of what could be Austin’s last official trip to the region, the secretary noted the Pentagon’s wins in Asia during his tenure at a press conference this week, even China itself played a role in those as well.
“They’ve achieved more in three-and-a-half years than Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump did,” said Michael Green, a former National Security Council member. “A lot of that is thanks to Xi Jinping.”
Noah Robertson is the Pentagon reporter at Defense News. He previously covered national security for the Christian Science Monitor. He holds a bachelor’s degree in English and government from the College of William & Mary in his hometown of Williamsburg, Virginia.
