The countdown to the fall advancement results has begun and for the 85,889 active-duty and full-time support sailors who sat for petty officer exams in September.

Chief of Naval Personnel Vice Adm. Bill Moran released the Cycle 224 quotas Nov. 19, giving sailors a peek at what's to come next week, when the service notifies commands Nov. 24 of all the sailors to be advanced to E-4, E-5 and E-6. notification of who will advance is released to commands on Nov. 25.

Great news for those up for their crow or another chevron: The overall chance to advance rose 4.2 percentage points to 27.61 percent, up from the 23.41 percent that advanced this past spring. That overall chance to advance is just slightly lower — .about 1 percentage point — than it was last fall, when 27.71 percent of eligible petty officers moved up.

For those on active duty, the news is also good: 84,629 sailors sat for their exams and 83,575 98.8 percent passed, making them advancement eligible for one of 23,072 new petty officer chevrons that'll be awarded next week.

The quotas and opportunities by paygrade and rating:

A public release of the names is planned for 9:00 am EST on Nov. 25, the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, so stay tuned to navytimes.com for complete coverage.

Navy officials point out that It's The advancement opportunity is also well above the current 10-year average of 23.16 percent, a figure that results from an average that came during 10 years of drawdown and often widely fluctuating advancement opportunities.

"Our goal for the past two years has been to stabilize advancement opportunity — an advancement rate that avoids sweeping growth or decline from one cycle to the next," Moran told Navy Times in a Nov. 17 phone interview. "While we saw a slight up-tick this cycle, we continue to hover right around our ten 10-year advancement average."

Still, Moran said that tracking and stabilizing the overall advancement rate isn't enough. Since taking over as CNP in July 2013, he's made stabilizing advancement across the force a priority. been CNP, he's made stabilit setting as a priority to stabilize advancements when he took over in July 2013.

"We have to monitor individual rating health — looking for every opportunity to balance input with outflow, rate by rate, in order to avoid dramatic swings or prolonged periods of really high or really low advancements," Moran said. "This balancing and stability will help us maintain viable and successful career paths across all ratings in the future."

Sources say tell Navy Times the increase is due in part to the Navy's decision to keep nine cruisers in the fleet — bumping end strength up slightly.

Navy personnel officials say that they've managed to get the wide fluctuations of the past decade under control and way advancement should stay in this general area with minor fluctuations for the next few years, provided end strength stays stable.

Active-duty box score

The chances of making at E-6 saw an uptick of 3.43 percentage points, to to a 19.26 percent shot for sailorsE-5's seeking to get a quota and a third stripe on their crow. That's up from last cycle's 15.83 percent. This cycle also even exceeded last fall's 19.20 percent shot at moving up. A total of 22,610 first class hopefuls took the test and 22,231 passed, with just 379 coming up short managing to fail, accounting for the 19.326 percent opportunity.

This cycle, there's are 35,437 sailors competing for 8,965 chances to make second class petty officer. add a second stripe to their crow. The drop in eligibles by 396, coupled with an 1,837 increase in quotas, eased competition a bit and boosted pushed opportunity up by 5.41 percentage points to 25.3 percent.

For those seeking to get into the petty officer ranks at the E-4 level, the chance to sew on a first crow for the 25,907 eligible E-3's increased slightly this cycle from the spring's 35.54 percent shot, though still well below the 40.23 percent opportunityshot offered last fall.

Full-time support box score

The news isn't so good in the reserve full-time support community, with advancement in all three paygrades combined now at 18.439 percent; some with 2,311 sailors are competing for 425 quotas to move up.

At E-6, 1,156 eligible test passers are competing for 105 new chevrons,rows for an opportunity shot of 9.108 percent, down from 140 quotas and a 12.5 49 percent shot this past spring.

For those 773 third classes seeking to make E-5, they saw their chance to move up has slipped to 22.99 percent, down from 26.42 last cycle and a requisite drop in quotas from 204 down to 170.

Mark D. Faram is a former reporter for Navy Times. He was a senior writer covering personnel, cultural and historical issues. A nine-year active duty Navy veteran, Faram served from 1978 to 1987 as a Navy Diver and photographer.

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